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QDT: Future Outlook Will Balance Locker Expansion With Profitability Headwinds

Legacy Mail Decline Will Erode Margins Despite Digital Upside

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QDT
AnalystLowTarget
Not Invested
Published 13 Jul 2025

Update shared on 12 Dec 2025

Fair value Decreased 10%
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AnalystLowTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
-21.6%
7D
-2.3%

Analysts have lowered their price target on Quadient from €16.50 to €14.80. This reflects more cautious assumptions on revenue growth and profit margins, despite a somewhat higher expected future P E multiple and a modestly increased discount rate.

What's in the News

  • Reaffirmed full year 2025 guidance, with revenue now expected to decline by a low single digit on an organic basis, underscoring a cautious outlook on top line momentum (company guidance)
  • Lowered fiscal year 2025 outlook earlier in the year, projecting a low single digit decline in organic revenue and a flat to low single digit decline in organic current EBIT, highlighting profitability pressures (company guidance)
  • Launched the Parcel Pending by Quadient open locker network in Italy, marking a key step in its European expansion and positioning the company to benefit from a rapidly growing e commerce market (business expansion)
  • Signed a new five year partnership with GLS Italy to deploy carrier agnostic parcel lockers nationwide, supporting the expansion of GLS's Out of Home network and enhancing Quadient's locker footprint (client announcement)
  • Extended its partnership with Evri in the UK, enabling the activation of 2,000 additional smart lockers and strengthening Quadient's open, carrier agnostic last mile delivery network (client announcement)

Valuation Changes

  • The Fair Value Estimate was lowered from €16.50 to €14.80, representing a modest downward revision in intrinsic value.
  • The Discount Rate increased slightly from 12.02 percent to 12.30 percent, reflecting a marginally higher perceived risk profile.
  • Revenue growth expectations shifted significantly from a projected 0.78 percent increase to a 5.87 percent decline, indicating a more cautious outlook for the top line.
  • The Net Profit Margin assumption was reduced from 7.49 percent to 5.51 percent, implying lower anticipated profitability levels.
  • The future P/E multiple was raised from 8.86x to 11.68x, signalling a somewhat higher valuation multiple despite weaker growth and margin assumptions.

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Disclaimer

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