ALM: Future Re-Rating Will Hinge On Ebglyss Uptake And Pipeline Delivery

Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Almirall to EUR 14.50, citing expectations for a continued valuation re-rating supported by the ramp up of Ebglyss, upcoming clinical readouts, and potential in-licensing and M&A to bolster the mid-stage pipeline.

Analyst Commentary

Analyst views on Almirall remain broadly positive, with recent coverage highlighting both upside drivers and execution risks as the company advances its dermatology portfolio.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts argue that the current valuation remains attractive relative to anticipated growth, particularly if the stock continues its recent re rating as key assets scale.
• The ramp up of Ebglyss is seen as a primary catalyst, with expectations that uptake will exceed initial forecasts and drive meaningful top line and margin expansion.
• Upcoming clinical readouts are viewed as potential inflection points that could de risk the pipeline and support further upward revisions to earnings estimates.
• Potential in licensing and targeted M and A aimed at strengthening the mid stage pipeline are expected to broaden the growth runway and support a higher long term valuation multiple.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts caution that a significant portion of expected upside depends on Ebglyss outperforming launch expectations, leaving the story exposed to any slower than anticipated adoption.
• Execution around clinical milestones is a key watchpoint, as delays or mixed data could undermine confidence in the growth algorithm and constrain multiple expansion.
• Reliance on in licensing and M and A to bolster the pipeline introduces integration and capital allocation risks that could dilute returns if deals are mis timed or overvalued.
• After a strong share price rebound, some see limited room for error, arguing that any setback in product launch metrics or trial outcomes could prompt a rapid reassessment of valuation.

What's in the News

• Almirall reiterated its earnings guidance for full year 2025, projecting double-digit net sales growth of 10% to 13%, underscoring confidence in its dermatology-driven growth outlook (company guidance).
• New long-term data from the POSITIVE real-world evidence study in moderate to severe psoriasis showed sustained improvements in skin outcomes and psychological well-being over 24 months for patients treated with tildrakizumab, supporting its role in holistic disease management (POSITIVE study, EADV 2025).
• The POSITIVE study, the first dermatology RWE to use the WHO-5 Well-Being Index as a primary endpoint, aligns closely with the WHO 2025 resolution on skin diseases by emphasizing mental health, quality of life, and impact on patients' partners (POSITIVE study, WHO resolution).
• Almirall reported a broad scientific presence at the 2025 EADV Congress in Paris, contributing 44 abstracts across atopic dermatitis, psoriasis, actinic keratosis, and hidradenitis suppurativa, along with two expert-led symposia that reinforce its positioning in medical dermatology (EADV 2025 contributions).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value Estimate is unchanged at approximately €13.86 per share, indicating no revision to the base intrinsic value assessment.
• The Discount Rate remains stable at around 7.6%, reflecting an unchanged view of Almirall's risk profile and cost of capital.
• Revenue Growth is effectively unchanged at about 10.1% per year, with only immaterial rounding differences in the updated assumptions.
• The Net Profit Margin is steady at roughly 10.7%, signaling no meaningful adjustment to long term profitability expectations.
• The Future P/E Multiple is unchanged at around 24.4x, suggesting no shift in the valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.