Update shared on27 Aug 2025
Fair value Increased 4.05%Despite a deterioration in consensus revenue growth forecasts, a modest improvement in net profit margin has supported a slight increase in Bavarian Nordic's fair value, with the target price rising from DKK234.50 to DKK244.00.
What's in the News
- Nordic Capital and Permira have proposed to acquire Bavarian Nordic for DKK 18.1 billion (DKK 233 per share), a 21% premium to the prior closing price; board and management have agreed to tender their shares, and a delisting is planned upon completion, subject to customary conditions.
- Bavarian Nordic raised full-year 2025 revenue guidance to DKK 5.7–6.7 billion, with improved outlooks for both Travel Health and Public Preparedness, and secured contracts ensuring the lower end of the range.
- Health Canada has accepted Bavarian Nordic’s CHIKV VLP chikungunya vaccine candidate for regulatory review, potentially supporting approval in early 2026; the vaccine has already received US, EU, and UK approvals based on strong phase 3 data.
- Bavarian Nordic secured a contract worth over DKK 200 million to supply smallpox/mpox vaccines to a European country, contributing to a total 2025 Public Preparedness business secured contract value slightly above DKK 3,000 million.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Bavarian Nordic
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from DKK234.50 to DKK244.00.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Bavarian Nordic has significantly fallen from -2.7% per annum to -3.5% per annum.
- The Net Profit Margin for Bavarian Nordic has risen slightly from 15.37% to 15.82%.
Disclaimer
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