FTK: Future Returns Will Depend On Sustaining Elevated Retail Trading Activity

The analyst fair value estimate for flatexDEGIRO has been raised from EUR 33.18 to EUR 35.00. This reflects analysts’ increased confidence in the company’s stronger medium-term revenue trajectory and supportive recent price target hikes from major research houses, despite only modest changes to the discount rate, margin, and valuation multiples.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research updates show a clear upward reset in expectations for flatexDEGIRO, with multiple price target upgrades clustering in the mid 30 euro range. This reflects a more constructive view on both earnings power and execution risk.

Bullish Takeaways

• Price targets have been lifted materially into a EUR 32 to EUR 37.50 band. This supports the view that the current share price still embeds upside as earnings forecasts are recalibrated higher.
• Bullish analysts highlight confirmation of elevated retail trading activity and strong cash balances. These factors underpin a more resilient revenue base and justify higher earnings multiples.
• Upward revisions to EPS estimates, including double digit percentage increases, are cited as a signal of improved confidence in management’s ability to convert higher activity levels into sustainable profit growth.
• The company’s dual brand strategy is viewed as a structural growth driver. It is seen as enabling continued market share gains and reinforcing the case for a premium valuation relative to online brokerage peers.

Bearish Takeaways

• Some bullish analysts retain neutral or Hold style stances despite raising targets. This suggests that, at least in the near term, portions of the positive trading backdrop may already be reflected in the share price.
• Cautious analysts point out that the rerating is heavily dependent on the persistence of elevated retail activity. This leaves the stock exposed if market sentiment or trading volumes normalize faster than expected.
• There is lingering concern that competitive intensity and pricing pressure in online brokerage could cap margin expansion. This may limit further upside to valuation even if revenue trends remain solid.
• While growth expectations have risen, execution around scaling the dual brand platform and maintaining service quality at higher volumes remains a key risk. This could introduce volatility to the equity story.

What's in the News

• Raised full year 2025 revenue guidance to a range of €530 million to €550 million, implying approximately 10 to 15 percent year on year growth versus the prior 4 to 8 percent range and earlier target of €499 million to €518 million (company guidance)
• Upgraded full year 2025 net income outlook to €150 million to €160 million, representing 34 to 43 percent year on year growth versus the previous €128 million to €139 million target range (company guidance)
• Improved guidance signals stronger operating momentum and higher confidence in sustaining elevated trading activity and monetization across the platform (company guidance)

Valuation Changes

• The Fair Value Estimate has risen from €33.18 to €35.00, indicating a moderate upward reassessment of the company’s intrinsic value.
• The Discount Rate has decreased slightly from 6.05 percent to 6.04 percent, providing a small tailwind to the updated valuation.
• Revenue Growth has been raised significantly from 7.41 percent to 10.79 percent, reflecting stronger expectations for top line expansion.
• The Net Profit Margin has edged down from 35.45 percent to 34.20 percent, implying a modestly more conservative profitability outlook.
• The Future P/E has dipped marginally from 17.60x to 17.52x, suggesting only a very small adjustment in the valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.