Update shared on08 Oct 2025
Fair value Decreased 2.17%Analysts have revised Hensoldt’s fair value estimate downward from €96.77 to €94.67. They cite a more tempered outlook in the European defense sector and the emergence of competing opportunities elsewhere.
Analyst Commentary
Recent updates from the Street reflect a mixed outlook on Hensoldt, as analysts weigh company-specific drivers against broader sector and market considerations. The consensus fair value range has narrowed, with opinions divided on near-term upside amid evolving defense dynamics across Europe.
Bullish Takeaways- Multiple bullish analysts have raised their price targets for Hensoldt, with the highest now set at EUR 120. This suggests ongoing confidence in the company’s long-term earnings potential and execution.
- Positive sentiment is driven by expectations that Germany will commit to increasing its defense spending to 3.5 percent of GDP. This would support future growth in Hensoldt’s addressable market regardless of geopolitical developments.
- Buy ratings are being maintained by several research houses, citing improved momentum in the company’s order book and expanded backlog.
- The firm is viewed as well positioned to benefit from continued structural demand for advanced defense technologies in Europe, supported by ongoing modernization initiatives.
- Bearish analysts caution that more compelling opportunities are emerging elsewhere within European defense, making Hensoldt’s risk-reward less attractive in the near term.
- Some note that valuation has become less appealing following the recent run-up in the share price. The current price target range reflects a more tempered outlook.
- Equal Weight and Neutral ratings have been initiated or upgraded, signaling that upside may be limited without a clear acceleration in growth or margin expansion.
- The sector’s competitive landscape and the potential for shifting government budgets remain key risks that could cap further upside for Hensoldt shares.
What's in the News
- Hensoldt AG has been added to the FTSE All-World Index, reflecting its growing prominence in global equity markets (Key Developments).
- The company has confirmed earnings guidance for 2025 and is projecting revenues between EUR 2,500 million and 2,600 million (Key Developments).
- Hensoldt recently held an Analyst/Investor Day to engage with stakeholders and provide updates on company strategy and performance (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate: The consensus fair value for Hensoldt has decreased slightly from €96.77 to €94.67.
- Discount Rate: The applied discount rate has edged down from 5.77% to 5.76%, reflecting marginally lower perceived risk.
- Revenue Growth: The projected revenue growth rate remains unchanged at 18.24%.
- Net Profit Margin: The estimated net profit margin is stable, moving minimally from 8.84% to 8.84%.
- Future P/E Ratio: The forecasted price-to-earnings ratio has decreased modestly from 48.35x to 47.27x.
Disclaimer
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