Update shared on 13 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 0.98%Holcim's analyst price target has increased modestly, rising from CHF 71.35 to CHF 72.05. Analysts cite recent upgrades, strengthened ratings, and a more favorable outlook for the building materials sector as factors driving the revision.
Analyst Commentary
Holcim has seen a wave of recent analyst actions, reflecting both growing confidence in the company’s strategic direction and some reservations about sector-wide risks. The analyst community's divided views center on Holcim's growth prospects, pricing execution, and exposure to cyclical demand trends.
Bullish Takeaways- Several bullish analysts have raised their price targets for Holcim, citing ongoing earnings growth potential driven by effective price and cost management.
- Recent upgrades highlight Holcim's positioning as a leading beneficiary of positive developments in the European cement market, with some describing it as the purest play during the current industry regime change.
- Optimism persists regarding Holcim's ability to deliver resilient operational performance, even amid softer construction trends and broader uncertainties in the sector.
- Major institutions project further upside in Holcim’s valuation, referencing sustained volume growth in Europe and expectations that consensus earnings estimates may underappreciate recent divestments and efficiency gains.
- Some bearish analysts have downgraded their ratings, voicing concerns that Holcim’s sales guidance may be overly optimistic, given ongoing weak demand trends.
- Caution is noted around the persistence of soft construction activity in key regions, which could limit near-term growth and pressure targets.
- Skeptics point to lingering risks associated with the cyclical nature of building materials demand and question the sustainability of premium valuation levels if sector headwinds intensify.
What's in the News
- Holcim AG confirmed its 2025 full-year earnings guidance, projecting 3% to 5% net sales growth in local currency and recurring EBIT growth of 6% to 10%, with a recurring EBIT margin above 18% (Corporate Guidance).
- The company reaffirmed that its growth objectives remain aligned with its NextGen Growth 2030 targets and that these objectives support expectations of continued operational and financial progress (Corporate Guidance).
- South Korean citizens detained in an immigration raid at a Hyundai Motor plant in Georgia are expected to return home voluntarily, which would help them avoid lengthy re-entry bans (The Wall Street Journal).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly, increasing from CHF 71.35 to CHF 72.05.
- Discount Rate has edged higher, moving from 5.14% to 5.21%.
- Revenue Growth outlook has declined marginally, with the rate going from -11.75% to -11.77%.
- Net Profit Margin estimate has improved modestly, from 13.56% to 13.57%.
- Future P/E has increased from 18.83x to 19.05x. This indicates an upward adjustment in valuation multiples.
Disclaimer
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