Update shared on03 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 1.42%Holcim’s modestly higher price target reflects mixed analyst views on the Amrize spin-off, with bullish arguments centered on exposure to European recovery, structural decarbonization growth, and valuation appeal, while concerns over fair value and post-spin dynamics temper optimism—leading to a revised consensus price target of CHF66.96.
Analyst Commentary
- Diverging analyst reactions to the spin-out of Holcim's North American operations into Amrize, with some seeing reduced value and others focusing on stronger balance sheet and potential margin improvement.
- Bullish analysts highlight Holcim’s exposure to cyclical European construction recovery and long-term structural growth from decarbonization themes.
- Bearish analysts cite perceived fair value or valuation concerns, particularly after the spin-off, resulting in lower price targets and downgrades.
- Several upgrades and price target increases are driven by Holcim’s significant discount to Swiss peers, its attractive dividend yield, and supportive sector valuation for European cement stocks.
- Increased emphasis on cash conversion, balance sheet optionality, and Holcim’s leadership in decarbonization as drivers for future margin expansion and new revenue streams.
What's in the News
- Holcim AG provided financial guidance for full-year 2025, forecasting post spin-off recurring EBIT growth of 6% to 10% in local currency.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Holcim
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from CHF66.02 to CHF66.96.
- The Future P/E for Holcim remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 17.56x to 17.85x.
- The Discount Rate for Holcim remained effectively unchanged, at 4.91%.
Disclaimer
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