Update shared on27 Aug 2025
Fair value Increased 2.20%The consensus analyst price target for UBS Group has been modestly raised to CHF31.91 as growing confidence in medium-term earnings expansion offsets caution around capital return policies and regulatory headwinds.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts expect UBS's earnings to continue expanding until at least 2028.
- Bearish analysts are concerned about uncertainty and capital headwinds stemming from new capital proposals.
- Risks associated with UBS have been largely priced into the current share price following underperformance versus European bank peers.
- Buyback assumptions have been reduced, reflecting more cautious capital return expectations from 2026 onwards.
- The stock is expected to remain range-bound in the near term until further strategic targets are released in Q4.
What's in the News
- UBS is projected to miss its goal of reducing headcount by 85,000 at Credit Suisse integration by end-2026, having only averaged 1,300 job cuts per quarter since 2024, leaving over 105,000 staff as of June 2025 (The Financial Times).
- UBS has instructed its bankers to stop pitching certain structured foreign exchange derivatives after client losses linked to Trump tariff announcements, and is retraining advisers to better assess client risk profiles (The Financial Times).
- UBS Global Wealth Management US expanded with a new 4,000 sq. ft. office in downtown Napa, California, reinforcing its commitment to the region and aiming for enhanced client service.
- The Swiss Commercial Court has ordered a court expert opinion on Credit Suisse's value at the time of the UBS takeover, with UBS required to provide extensive internal documents; this marks an interim win for former Credit Suisse shareholders and challenges UBS’s argument that CS was ‘worthless’ at merger (Key Developments).
- UBS's board authorized a new share buyback plan for up to 10% of issued share capital (334 million shares, $2 billion), valid until June 2027; however, as of late June 2025, no shares had been repurchased under this program (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for UBS Group
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from CHF31.22 to CHF31.91.
- The Future P/E for UBS Group has significantly fallen from 11.86x to 9.92x.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for UBS Group remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 3.7% per annum to 3.8% per annum.
Disclaimer
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