DOKA: U S Access Focus Will Support Earnings Upside And Undervalued Shares

Analysts raised their price target for dormakaba Holding to CHF 922 from CHF 880, citing renewed Buy and Overweight recommendations. They also expect that the company’s focus on the lucrative U.S. access solutions market will support slightly stronger revenue growth despite a modestly lower profit margin outlook.

Analyst Commentary

Analyst sentiment around dormakaba Holding remains broadly constructive, with new coverage reinforcing confidence in the company’s strategic direction and earnings potential.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts view the CHF 922 and CHF 880 price targets as supported by a favorable risk reward profile, reflecting confidence in revenue growth outpacing the sector.
• The company’s concentration on the lucrative U.S. access solutions market is seen as a key structural growth driver that can deliver above peer and above consensus earnings expansion.
• New coverage at premium valuation levels signals that investors are willing to pay up for dormakaba’s execution track record, particularly around product innovation and market share gains in high margin segments.
• Analysts highlight that a clearer strategic focus and disciplined capital allocation could unlock further upside to current targets if management continues to execute on growth initiatives.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts caution that the elevated price targets leave less margin of safety if growth in the U.S. access solutions market normalizes or underperforms expectations.
• There are concerns that slightly lower margin guidance could limit upside to earnings, making the current valuation vulnerable to any execution slip ups.
• Some analysts flag competitive intensity and potential pricing pressure in access solutions as risks that could cap the company’s ability to sustain above peer growth over the medium term.
• Uncertainty around the timing and scale of operating leverage benefits raises questions over whether the company can fully justify a sustained re rating toward the top end of the implied valuation range.

What's in the News

• Shareholders approved a 15% dividend increase to CHF 9.20 per share at the October 21, 2025 AGM, with payments scheduled to begin on October 27, 2025 (AGM/Key Developments).
• Ernst and Young AG was elected as the new statutory auditor at the October 21, 2025 AGM, marking a change in the company’s audit oversight (AGM/Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value is unchanged at CHF 82.11 per share, indicating that updated assumptions did not alter the intrinsic value estimate.
• The Discount Rate has risen slightly from 5.86% to 5.87%, reflecting a marginally higher required return for investors.
• Revenue Growth has increased modestly from 3.70% to 3.71%, signaling a small uplift in long term top line expectations.
• The Net Profit Margin has fallen slightly from 4.89% to 4.78%, pointing to a marginally more cautious profitability outlook.
• The Future P/E has risen from 24.88x to 25.48x, implying a modestly higher valuation multiple on forward earnings.