Mount Milligan And Goldfield Upgrades Will Unlock Sustainable Potential

Centerra Gold's analyst price target has recently shifted by approximately 13 percent, with analysts attributing the revision to a mixed outlook on core operations and expectations for project investments. This is reflected in a new average estimate of $9.50 to C$14 per share.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research on Centerra Gold highlights a mix of optimism and caution as analysts update their outlooks on the company. The focus continues to be on core operational performance, project execution, and the pace of investment, with revised price targets reflecting these factors.

Bullish Takeaways

Analysts highlight Mount Milligan as a core asset that supports Centerra Gold's long-term growth and underpins the company's financial outlook.
Recent upward revisions in price targets signal confidence in the value potential arising from ongoing and future projects.
Centerra is positioned with deep value relative to peers, suggesting upside potential if operational and investment milestones are met.
The company’s continued project pipeline, including advancement at Thompson Creek, Goldfield, and Kemess, is viewed as a driver for future valuation growth.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts point to operational headwinds at Mount Milligan, particularly its challenges in consistently meeting production guidance.
Oksut's declining production profile has contributed to more cautious sentiment about near-term performance.
Centerra's entry into a significant investment phase raises execution risk and may result in slower free cash flow growth compared to competitors focused on immediate returns.
Several price target reductions reflect tempered expectations for short-term upside, as some analysts believe investors may prefer producers with clearer near-term growth trajectories.

What's in the News

Kestrel Gold Inc. provided an update on Centerra Gold's ongoing drilling program at the QCM property in British Columbia, with 7,276 metres of drilling completed and new gold assays confirming historical results. (Key Developments)
Centerra Gold announced the results of a pre-feasibility study for the Mount Milligan mine, confirming a life of mine extension to 2045 and options to increase throughput by approximately 10% from 2029. An additional agreement with Royal Gold provides extended cost support. (Key Developments)
Technical study completed at the Goldfield project in Nevada confirms an after-tax net present value (5%) of $245 million and an after-tax internal rate of return of 30%, supporting immediate project advancement. (Key Developments)
Centerra Gold reported second quarter 2025 production results: 63,311 ounces of gold, 12,437,000 lbs of copper, and 3,165,000 lbs of molybdenum roasted. All amounts are down compared to the prior year. (Key Developments)
The company completed a share buyback tranche, repurchasing 6,355,433 shares (3.04%) for $42 million as of August 2025. (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

Fair Value Estimate has increased from CA$14.62 to CA$16.59 per share, indicating a moderate upward revision in Centerra Gold's assessed intrinsic value.
Discount Rate remains effectively unchanged, moving marginally from 6.82% to 6.82%.
Revenue Growth projection has decreased slightly, from 4.62% to 4.45% expected annually.
Net Profit Margin forecast has declined significantly, dropping from 7.93% previously to 5.42% projected.
Future Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio expectation has risen sharply, from 20.86x to 34.60x. This points to higher anticipated valuation multiples even though the profit outlook is lower.