Mount Milligan And Goldfield Upgrades Will Unlock Sustainable Potential

Centerra Gold's analyst price target has shifted upward to $14.62 from $13.47, as analysts cite a balanced outlook that reflects both ongoing investment projects and evolving asset performance across the company’s portfolio.

Analyst Commentary

Recent analyst coverage reveals divided perspectives on Centerra Gold's current positioning and future trajectory. While some see opportunity in key assets and ongoing projects, others note challenges that may weigh on near-term performance and valuation.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts continue to recognize Mount Milligan as a foundational asset that supports Centerra's growth strategy and stability.
• Price target increases in recent research are attributed to ongoing investment in promising projects, including the advancement of Thompson Creek, Goldfield, and Kemess.
• Upward target revisions reflect confidence in the company's balanced portfolio and ability to execute on new development opportunities.
• Recent model updates indicate Centerra's valuation remains compelling within the peer group, especially as analysts incorporate recent results and asset performance.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts cite Mount Milligan's ongoing struggle to meet production guidance and continued declines at the Oksut mine as material headwinds.
• Multiple firms have lowered price targets or ratings, reflecting concerns over near-term production challenges and execution risk.
• The company's entry into a significant investment phase is seen by some as increasing risk. Investors may be more likely to favor producers with more immediate growth in production and free cash flow.
• Caution persists as updated commodity price assumptions and asset outlooks temper expectations for near-term upside in share price.

What's in the News

• Centerra Gold announced a pre-feasibility study for the Mount Milligan mine, extending the mine life by approximately 10 years to 2045 and outlining plans for a 10% throughput increase in 2029 (Key Developments).
• The company has revised its 2025 consolidated production guidance, lowering expected gold production to 250,000 to 290,000 ounces, down from previous guidance of 270,000 to 310,000 ounces. Copper production guidance remains unchanged at 50 to 60 million pounds (Key Developments).
• A technical study of the Goldfield project in Nevada demonstrated strong project economics, with a $245 million after-tax net present value (5%) and a 30% after-tax internal rate of return at a $2,500 per ounce gold price. Centerra is moving immediately to detailed engineering and procurement (Key Developments).
• For Q2 2025, Centerra reported consolidated gold production of 63,311 ounces and copper production of 12.4 million pounds, both lower than the previous year (Key Developments).
• From April to August 2025, Centerra repurchased approximately 1.87% of its outstanding shares, completing a previously announced buyback (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value has increased from CA$13.47 to CA$14.62. This reflects a moderate upward revision in estimated company worth.
• Discount Rate has risen slightly from 6.54% to 6.82%. This change indicates a marginally higher perceived risk or required rate of return.
• Revenue Growth projections have fallen significantly, down from 10.21% to 4.62%. This suggests lower expectations for top-line expansion.
• Net Profit Margin estimates have declined from 9.00% to 7.93%. This points to expectations of reduced profitability in the forecast period.
• Future P/E ratio has risen modestly from 20.03x to 20.86x. This implies a slightly more expensive valuation relative to expected earnings.