Analysts have raised Centerra Gold’s price target from CA$12.57 to CA$13.47 on optimism about its undervalued project pipeline and longer-term growth opportunities, though near-term cash flow and production concerns remain.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts highlight deep value and potential upside from Centerra’s significant project pipeline, including Thompson Creek, Goldfield, and Kemess.
- Bearish analysts flag near-term cash flow concerns due to a heavy investment phase and delayed production growth from new projects.
- Weak performance at Mount Milligan and production declines at Oksut contribute to cautious sentiment and limit expectations for operational improvement in the near term.
- Model updates following Q2 results and spot commodity price movements have led to both upward and downward target revisions across coverage.
- Some bullish analysts anticipate that Centerra’s turnaround and new developments will eventually deliver growth, justifying higher targets, while bearish analysts expect investors to prefer peers with nearer-term production and free cash flow visibility.
What's in the News
- Centerra Gold's pre-feasibility study for Mount Milligan extends mine life to 2045, with potential 10% throughput increase by 2029; new agreements with Royal Gold adjust gold and copper purchase terms and provide additional cost support.
- Technical study for the Goldfield project in Nevada confirms robust economics (after-tax NPV5% of $245 million, IRR of 30%), leading Centerra to commence engineering and procurement for construction, targeting first production by end of 2028.
- Centerra revised 2025 gold production guidance downward to 250,000–290,000 ounces (previously 270,000–310,000 oz) while maintaining copper production guidance at 50–60 million pounds.
- Q2 2025 operating results showed gold production of 63,311 ounces (vs. 89,828 oz y/y), copper output of 12.4 million lbs (vs. 13.5 mln lbs y/y), and increased molybdenum roasting.
- Share buyback program completed with repurchase of 6.36 million shares for $42 million, representing 3.04% of shares outstanding.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Centerra Gold
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen from CA$12.57 to CA$13.47.
- The Net Profit Margin for Centerra Gold has significantly risen from 6.73% to 9.00%.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Centerra Gold has significantly risen from 9.2% per annum to 10.2% per annum.
Disclaimer
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