When silver reaches $100 per oz

🪙 Avino Silver & Gold Mines (ASM) – 2025 Update

Latest official info

• Shares Outstanding (basic): ~149,866,367 as of July 31, 2025. Fully diluted ~161,176,832.
• Key Project: Oxide Tailings Project (OTP) at Avino Mine in Durango, Mexico. PFS completed Feb 2024.
• OTP PFS metrics:   
• • LOM average Ag & Au grade: ~55 g/t silver, 0.47 g/t gold; copper also present.   
• • LOM AISC (silver equivalent): ~US$10.23 per tr-oz for the OTP.

Assumptions for valuation scenario (expanded production to ~7M oz AgEq): Use AISC of US$30/oz (conservative vs. OTP’s $10/oz). Shares = 149,866,367 basic.

⚠️ Risks

• Growth challenge: Hitting 7M oz by 2028 means scaling up fast; delays or lower grades could slow this.
• Costs: While OTP has low costs, moving into new zones or deeper ore could push AISC above today’s levels.
• Permits & regulations: Mexico has shifted mining rules before; extra delays or fees are possible.
• Silver prices: If silver stays far below $100/oz, the bullish case weakens sharply.
• Funding needs: Scaling up usually means raising cash; this could mean more shares or debt.
• Execution: Building new capacity on time and budget is never easy.
• Operations: Metallurgy, recoveries, or environmental factors (like water/power) could impact margins.

⚡ Catalysts

• OTP ramp-up: Oxide Tailings Project going full scale in 2025–2026.
• La Preciosa project: Extra ounces coming from this deposit.
• Drill results: More ounces from ongoing exploration.
• Ownership wins: Avino now owns 100% of La Preciosa (no royalty drag).
• Market visibility: Possible index inclusion and better recognition.
• Rising silver prices: The biggest potential re-rating driver.

🗺️ Risks & Catalysts Mapped to Timeline

2025–2026

• 🚧 Risks: Execution risk (OTP ramp-up), operational risks (recoveries, metallurgy), funding needs for expansion.
• ⚡ Catalysts: OTP fully online, early exploration results, improved visibility with steady production.

2026–2027

• 🚧 Risks: Permitting delays at La Preciosa, potential cost creep as new zones are mined.
• ⚡ Catalysts: La Preciosa integration, stronger production profile, more drilling success.

2027–2028

• 🚧 Risks: Market risk if silver isn’t near $100; expansion risk scaling to 7M oz.
• ⚡ Catalysts: Hitting 7M oz run-rate, strong silver prices, full re-rating potential.

📊 Detailed Valuation (7M oz, 2028, Silver $100/$150, Gold $4,500/$5,000)

Step 1: Revenue Estimation (2028)

• Production: 7M oz AgEq
• At $100 silver → Revenue = 7,000,000 × $100 = $700M
• At $150 silver → Revenue = 7,000,000 × $150 = $1.05B

Step 2: Free Cash Flow (FCF) Estimation

• AISC assumption: $30/oz
• At $100 silver → FCF = (7M × ($100−$30)) = $490M
• At $150 silver → FCF = (7M × ($150−$30)) = $840M

Step 3: Valuation Based on FCF Multiples

• At $100 silver: 10× = $4.90B | 15× = $7.35B | 20× = $9.80B
• At $150 silver: 10× = $8.40B | 15× = $12.60B | 20× = $16.80B

Step 4: Per-Share Value (149.9M shares)

• At $100 silver: 10× = $32.70/sh | 15× = $49/sh | 20× = $65/sh
• At $150 silver: 10× = $56/sh | 15× = $84/sh | 20× = $112/sh

🎯 Conclusion

✅ ~150M shares today (not 57M as in older models).

✅ OTP has ultra-low costs (~$10/oz), so $30/oz AISC is conservative.

✅ At $100 silver & 7M oz, Avino could fairly trade in the $33–65/share range.

✅ At $150 silver, upside jumps to $56–112/share.

🚀 Avino has high torque to silver and could re-rate massively in a true bull market.