Update shared on 10 Dec 2025
Fair value Increased 4.70%Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Barrick Mining to approximately $62 per share from about $59.50, citing slightly stronger expectations for revenue growth and valuation multiples, despite a marginally lower projected profit margin.
What's in the News
- Barrick's board, under pressure from activist investor Elliott Investment Management, has approved exploring a major corporate split that would spin off its premier North American mining assets into a new listed company. The move aims to close a valuation gap and reduce geopolitical risk (activist campaign announcement).
- The company has resolved all disputes with the Government of Mali over the Loulo Gounkoto complex, with all charges to be dropped, detained employees released, operational control returned to Barrick and ongoing arbitration at ICSID withdrawn (Mali settlement agreement).
- Barrick increased its quarterly base dividend by 25 percent to $0.125 per share and declared a third quarter 2025 dividend of $0.175 per share, including a $0.05 performance component, payable December 15, 2025 to shareholders of record on November 28, 2025 (dividend announcement).
- From July 1 to November 10, 2025, Barrick repurchased 18.6 million shares for $589 million, completing a $1 billion program covering 39.79 million shares. The company also lifted its total buyback authorization to $1.5 billion following a $50 million increase approved on November 7, 2025 (share repurchase and authorization update).
- The board appointed Mark Hill as interim CEO effective September 29, 2025, following the departure of long time chief executive Mark Bristow. The board has also launched a search for a permanent president and CEO with the help of an external firm (executive leadership change).
Valuation Changes
- The fair value estimate has risen slightly, increasing from approximately $59.49 to about $62.28 per share.
- The discount rate has edged higher, moving from roughly 7.19% to around 7.29%, which implies a modestly higher required return.
- Revenue growth has risen slightly, with the long-term forecast increasing from about 13.61% to roughly 14.08% annually.
- The net profit margin has dipped marginally, easing from around 28.51% to approximately 28.26%.
- The future P/E has risen moderately, moving from roughly 13.37x to about 14.26x expected earnings.
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