Update shared on 25 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 8.71%Analysts have increased their price target for Barrick Mining from $54.72 to $59.49. This change reflects improved profit margin forecasts as well as a slightly lower discount rate.
What's in the News
- Barrick Mining reached a settlement with the Government of Mali, ending all disputes regarding the Loulo and Gounkoto mines. All charges against the company and its employees will be dropped, and operational control over the complex will be restored to Barrick. Arbitration claims at the ICSID will be withdrawn. (Key Developments)
- The company reported third-quarter 2025 results with gold production at 829,000 ounces and copper at 55,000 tonnes. Gold production was down from last year, while copper increased. (Key Developments)
- Barrick reaffirmed its 2025 production guidance, anticipating gold output in the lower half of the projected 3.15 to 3.50 million ounce range. Copper guidance remains unchanged at 200,000 to 230,000 tonnes. (Key Developments)
- The company announced a 25% increase in its quarterly base dividend to $0.125 per share, as well as an additional performance dividend for Q3 2025. (Key Developments)
- From July to November 2025, Barrick repurchased 18.6 million shares totaling $589 million. This completed 2.32% of the buyback initially announced in February 2025. The buyback plan was increased by $50 million, bringing total authorization to $1.5 billion. (Key Developments)
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: Increased from CA$54.72 to CA$59.49, reflecting a modest upward revision in valuation.
- Discount Rate: Decreased slightly from 7.23% to 7.19%, which indicates a marginally lower perceived risk.
- Revenue Growth: Revised downward from 14.45% to 13.61%, suggesting expectations of slower future sales growth.
- Net Profit Margin: Improved from 27.40% to 28.51%, pointing to higher anticipated profitability.
- Future P/E: Edged down from 13.42x to 13.37x, which signals a slightly lower forward earnings multiple.
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