Update shared on26 Sep 2025
Fair value Decreased 5.28%Analysts have lowered their price target for Canada Goose Holdings to CA$21.03, reflecting uncertainty about the company’s ability to sustain profitable sales growth amid its transition to a year-round lifestyle brand, despite optimism around brand initiatives, operational improvements, and potential buyout interest.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts cite Canada Goose’s modernization to a year-round lifestyle brand, innovative and culturally relevant product vision, and enhanced merchandising as key drivers for improved sales, margins, and brand momentum.
- Potential go-private or buyout scenarios, with controlling shareholder interest and received buyout bids, are seen as providing downside protection and re-rating catalysts.
- Better-than-expected back-to-school spending and the prospect of more favorable macroeconomic conditions are encouraging investor sentiment and forecasts into 2026.
- Bearish analysts flag persistent struggles balancing Canada Goose’s identity between luxury and premium outdoor segments, with challenges sustaining profitable sales growth.
- Short-term disappointment stems from ongoing investment spending to boost sales, but operational improvements, cleaner inventory, and protection from tariffs due to Canadian manufacturing are seen as mitigating risks at current valuation levels.
What's in the News
- Bain Capital, the controlling shareholder of Canada Goose, has been seeking to sell its stake and is working with Goldman Sachs to explore a sale, though a formal auction process has not officially commenced (Axios).
- Private equity firms, including Advent International and Boyu Capital, have reportedly submitted take-private bids with valuations ranging from $1.35B–$1.4B, targeting a privatization of the company listed in Toronto and New York (CNBC).
- The news of the potential sale and reported bids caused Canada Goose's share price to surge more than 13% following the CNBC report (Axios).
- Bain Capital owns 60.5% of the multiple voting shares, equating to 55.5% overall voting power, and has been gauging early M&A interest from other private equity buyers; other shareholders may also participate in any transaction (Key Developments).
- Canada Goose has not executed any share buybacks from March to June 2025, completing the buyback program with zero shares repurchased for CAD 0 million (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Canada Goose Holdings
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has fallen from CA$22.21 to CA$21.03.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Canada Goose Holdings has significantly risen from 4.2% per annum to 4.8% per annum.
- The Future P/E for Canada Goose Holdings has fallen slightly from 31.41x to 29.85x.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.