Update shared on11 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 7.77%Canada Goose’s analyst price target has been revised upward to CA$22.21, reflecting confidence in its successful product modernization, brand momentum, and potential buyout support, despite ongoing concerns over its brand positioning and sales investments.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts highlight Canada Goose’s successful shift toward year-round lifestyle outerwear and modernization of its product offerings, improving brand relevance and sales/margin outlook.
- Ongoing product, merchandising, and marketing enhancements are viewed as having generated stronger brand momentum and better positioning amid challenging sector trends.
- Reports of go-private/buyout bids, led by Bain Capital at a $1.35B valuation, are seen as providing potential downside protection and boosting the share price outlook.
- Improving macro conditions, encouraging back-to-school spending, and more favorable investor sentiment are cited as supporting further upside.
- Bearish analysts continue to flag concerns over investor disappointment in sales-driving investments and challenges positioning the brand between luxury and premium outdoor segments, although risk/reward at current share levels is viewed as balanced.
What's in the News
- Bain Capital, controlling shareholder of Canada Goose, is seeking to sell its stake and hired Goldman Sachs earlier this year to explore a potential auction (Axios, Key Developments).
- Take-private bids valuing Canada Goose at approximately $1.35–$1.4B have reportedly been received from private equity firms including Advent International and Boyu Capital, though sources say no formal bidding process has started yet (CNBC, Axios).
- All current offers are focused on privatizing the company, which is publicly listed in both Toronto and New York (CNBC).
- Bain holds nearly 32% of Canada Goose but controls the majority of the company’s voting rights through 60.5% ownership of multiple voting shares, granting them 55.5% of total voting power (Key Developments).
- Canada Goose completed no share buybacks in the most recent quarter, with no shares repurchased between March 31, 2025, and June 29, 2025 (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Canada Goose Holdings
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen from CA$20.61 to CA$22.21.
- The Future P/E for Canada Goose Holdings has risen from 29.26x to 31.41x.
- The Discount Rate for Canada Goose Holdings remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 8.38% to 8.24%.
Disclaimer
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