Update shared on 15 Dec 2025
Fair value Decreased 3.29%Narrative Update
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Raízen slightly, reducing fair value from approximately $1.98 to $1.92. They are factoring in a higher discount rate and more moderate revenue growth assumptions, partly offset by a marginally stronger profit margin outlook and a modestly lower future P/E multiple.
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: Reduced slightly from R$1.98 to R$1.92, reflecting a modest downgrade in the intrinsic valuation.
- Discount Rate: Risen slightly from 21.96 percent to 22.25 percent, implying a marginally higher required return and risk premium.
- Revenue Growth: Fallen significantly from 108.54 percent to 70.04 percent, indicating a more conservative outlook on top line expansion.
- Net Profit Margin: Improved modestly from 5.58 percent to 5.69 percent, suggesting a slightly stronger long term profitability profile.
- Future P/E: Edged down from 2.71x to 2.62x, pointing to a marginally lower valuation multiple applied to future earnings.
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