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RAIZ4: Exit From Joint Venture Will Drive Renewed Focus And Upside

Update shared on 01 Dec 2025

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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
-64.6%
7D
-4.7%

Raízen’s analyst price target has been modestly adjusted upward to $1.98. Analysts cite incremental changes in profitability and underlying risk assumptions as the key drivers behind the revised valuation.

What's in the News

  • Raízen and Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A. de C.V. (FEMSA) have amicably terminated their joint venture in Brazil, Grupo Nós. This change enables each company to focus on their respective business strategies (Key Developments).
  • FEMSA will retain all OXXO stores in Brazil and the Cajamar distribution center, which strengthens its strategic priority in the country (Key Developments).
  • Raízen will retain ownership of all Shell Select convenience stores in Brazil following the transaction (Key Developments).
  • The separation is structured to be cash-neutral, with FEMSA assuming the joint venture's outstanding debt as of closing (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value: Remains virtually unchanged at approximately R$1.98 per share.
  • Discount Rate: Increased slightly from 21.74% to 21.96%. This reflects a modest rise in perceived risk.
  • Revenue Growth: Holds steady at roughly 8.5% year-over-year. This indicates no material change in growth expectations.
  • Net Profit Margin: Declined modestly from 5.65% to 5.58%.
  • Future P/E: Rose fractionally from 2.67x to 2.71x, suggesting a minor revision in future earnings expectations.

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Disclaimer

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