Update shared on03 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 1.00%Consensus analyst price targets for Embraer have edged higher to R$81.89 as analysts cite resilience and diversification mitigating tariff risks—especially those concentrated in Executive Aviation—leading to only a marginal upward revision in fair value.
Analyst Commentary
- Some bullish analysts see the recent pullback, driven by the announcement of a 50% U.S. tariff on Brazil, as a buying opportunity given its limited impact outside the Executive Aviation segment.
- Bearish analysts maintain a cautious view but still raise price targets due to overall sector dynamics and Embraer's relative valuation.
- The main tariff-related risk is concentrated in Executive Aviation, with an estimated annualized EBIT impact of $300M–$400M if implemented.
- Diversification across other business segments is expected to cushion the company from the full effects of the tariffs.
- Persistent upward target revisions reflect resilience in core operations and potential for recovery despite geopolitical pressures.
What's in the News
- Embraer has been removed from the Brazil Valor BM&FBOVESPA Index.
- The company reiterated 2025 earnings guidance, expecting revenues of USD 7.0–7.5 billion and adjusted EBIT margin of 7.5%–8.3%.
- Q2 2025 production increased 30% year-over-year, with 61 aircraft delivered, and 87 aircraft delivered in the first half of 2025 (up from 71 in H1 2024).
- Embraer expects total commercial and executive deliveries of 222–240 aircraft in 2025.
- Lithuania selected the Embraer C-390 Millennium as its next-generation military transport aircraft, and Embraer received a firm order from SkyWest Inc. for 60 aircraft (USD 3.6 billion value), with purchase rights for 50 more.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Embraer
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from R$81.08 to R$81.89.
- The Future P/E for Embraer remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 30.16x to 30.48x.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Embraer remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 8.6% per annum to 8.5% per annum.
Disclaimer
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