Despite ongoing concerns among bearish analysts regarding Embraer’s outlook and the potential EBIT impact of proposed U.S. tariffs on its Executive Aviation segment, bullish analysts view the recent share price pullback as a buying opportunity and remain confident in the company’s resilience, resulting in a consensus analyst price target increase from R$74.69 to R$80.36.
Analyst Commentary
- Bearish analysts remain less constructive on the shares despite raising price targets, reflecting ongoing concerns about Embraer's outlook.
- Bullish analysts view the recent share price pullback, prompted by the announcement of a 50% U.S. tariff on Brazil, as a buying opportunity.
- The primary risk from the proposed tariffs is seen in Embraer's Executive Aviation segment, while other segments are expected to have limited exposure.
- Estimates suggest that if the 50% tariff is implemented, Embraer could experience an annualized EBIT impact of $300M-$400M.
- Bullish analysts maintain high price targets and positive ratings, signaling confidence in Embraer's underlying business resilience despite macroeconomic headwinds.
What's in the News
- Embraer reiterated 2025 earnings guidance, projecting revenues of USD 7.0–7.5 billion and an adjusted EBIT margin between 7.5% and 8.3%.
- The company delivered 61 aircraft in Q2 2025, up 30% year-over-year, with 19 commercial jets, 38 executive jets, and 4 defense aircraft; first-half 2025 deliveries totaled 87 versus 71 a year ago.
- Full-year 2025 guidance calls for 222–240 total commercial and executive aircraft deliveries.
- Embraer received a firm order from SkyWest Inc. for 60 aircraft with purchase rights for 50 more, valued at USD 3.6 billion, to begin deliveries in 2027.
- Lithuania selected the Embraer C-390 Millennium as its next-generation military transport, joining a growing number of European and NATO countries adopting the model.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Embraer
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen from R$74.69 to R$80.36.
- The Future P/E for Embraer has risen from 28.21x to 30.06x.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Embraer has risen slightly from 8.2% per annum to 8.4% per annum.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.