Update shared on 15 Dec 2025
Narrative Update on Origin Energy
Analysts have maintained their price target for Origin Energy at A$12.15, reflecting unchanged views on the company’s discount rate, revenue growth outlook, profit margin expectations, and future P E multiple.
What's in the News
- Issued fiscal 2026 production guidance, expecting Australia Pacific LNG output of 635 to 680 petajoules, which underscores stable long term volume expectations (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate: Unchanged at approximately A$12.15 per share, indicating no revision to the intrinsic value assessment.
- Discount Rate: Stable at around 6.67 percent, signaling no change in the perceived risk profile or cost of capital assumptions.
- Revenue Growth: Effectively unchanged at about 13.3 percent, with only a negligible upward adjustment that does not alter the growth outlook.
- Net Profit Margin: Steady at roughly 6.66 percent, with only a minute numerical refinement that leaves profitability expectations intact.
- Future P/E: Maintained at approximately 21.9 times, reflecting no material shift in valuation multiples applied to future earnings.
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