Update shared on 23 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 3.94%Narrative Update on Qantas Airways Analyst Price Target
Analysts have revised Qantas Airways’ price target slightly downward from A$12.55 to A$12.05. This change reflects updated views on valuation and earnings outlook.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst coverage of Qantas Airways highlights a nuanced outlook, balancing upgraded earnings expectations with concerns about the company’s valuation relative to its current share price. The following summarizes key perspectives from market observers:
Bullish Takeaways
- Higher earnings estimates have led to a notable increase in the price target. This reflects improved operational performance and confidence in the airline’s growth trajectory.
- Bullish analysts see the updated price target as a sign of positive momentum, indicating that Qantas is executing well in a challenging environment.
- Target roll-forwards, which consider updated fiscal periods, contribute to optimism about future profitability and cash flow generation.
Bearish Takeaways
- Despite the price target upgrade, analysts remain cautious as the new target still falls short of the current market price. This signals potential overvaluation.
- There are concerns that valuation is stretched, which may limit near-term upside for investors until earnings further justify the premium.
- Some observers note that while higher earnings estimates support a higher target, recent share price strength may already reflect much of this optimism.
- The downgrade to a neutral stance suggests analysts are seeking clearer evidence of sustainable long-term growth before recommending increased exposure.
What's in the News
- Qantas Airways Limited announced a fully franked special dividend of AUD 0.099 per share for the six months ended June 30, 2025. The dividend is payable on October 15, 2025, with an ex date of September 16, 2025, and a record date of September 17, 2025 (Special Dividend Announcement).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Fair Value: Decreased moderately from A$12.55 to A$12.05, reflecting a more conservative valuation outlook.
- Discount Rate: Increased slightly from 8.57% to 8.61%, indicating a marginally higher risk premium applied to future cash flows.
- Revenue Growth Projection: Moved down from 5.79% to 5.75%, implying a minor downward adjustment to expected top-line expansion.
- Net Profit Margin: Declined marginally from 7.52% to 7.42%, suggesting a modestly lower profitability expectation.
- Future P/E Ratio: Decreased from 10.72x to 10.47x, reflecting anticipated lower earnings multiples in upcoming periods.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.