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TPG: Upcoming Capital Returns Will Drive Attractive Upside For Shareholders

5G And Digital Investments Will Transform Australia's Telecom Landscape

TPG logo
TPG
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 09 Feb 2025

Update shared on 19 Dec 2025

Fair value Decreased 7.10%
Previous
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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
-12.5%
7D
-0.8%

Analysts have trimmed their price target for TPG Telecom to approximately $4.64 from about $5.00. This reflects a slightly higher perceived risk, offset by modestly improved long term profit margin expectations and a lower projected future P/E multiple.

What's in the News

  • TPG Telecom has completed a follow on equity offering of approximately AUD 300 million, issuing over 83 million ordinary shares at around AUD 3.61 per share. The offering was structured as a subsequent direct listing (company filing).
  • The company has filed an additional follow on equity offering of about AUD 550 million via subsequent direct listing. This covers more than 152 million new ordinary shares at approximately AUD 3.61 per share (company filing).
  • TPG Telecom has filed a rights based follow on equity offering of roughly AUD 138 million, involving more than 38 million ordinary shares at around AUD 3.61 per share (company filing).
  • A separate rights offering has been completed for about AUD 73.4 million, with more than 20.5 million ordinary shares issued at approximately AUD 3.57 per share (company filing).
  • The board has announced a special dividend of AUD 0.09 per share, with an ex dividend date of November 14, 2025, a record date of November 17, 2025, and payment on November 24, 2025 (company announcement).

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value Estimate was reduced moderately from A$5.00 to approximately A$4.64, implying a lower central valuation for TPG Telecom shares.
  • The Discount Rate edged up slightly from about 7.26 percent to roughly 7.33 percent, reflecting a small increase in perceived risk.
  • The Revenue Growth Assumption improved marginally from around negative 1.51 percent to about negative 1.51 percent, indicating a slightly less negative long term growth outlook.
  • The Net Profit Margin increased modestly from roughly 4.47 percent to about 4.53 percent, pointing to a small upgrade in long term profitability expectations.
  • The Future P/E Multiple was lowered meaningfully from about 48.1x to approximately 44.2x, suggesting more conservative assumptions for the valuation of future earnings.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.