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KGN: Share Buyback Will Support EPS As Margins Face Modest Pressures

E-commerce Competition And Supply Challenges Will Undermine Prospects

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KGN
AnalystLowTarget
Not Invested
Published 03 Aug 2025

Update shared on 12 Dec 2025

Fair value Decreased 19%
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AnalystLowTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
-40.2%
7D
-2.4%

Analysts have trimmed their price target for Kogan.com to about $3.30 from roughly $4.05. This reflects slightly higher perceived risk, slower expected revenue growth and modestly softer profit margins, even as future valuation multiples edge up.

What's in the News

  • The on-market buyback program announced on April 26, 2023, has been completed, with a total of 9,211,257 shares repurchased. This represents 8.95% of issued capital for AUD 45.8 million (company filing).
  • Between January 1, 2025 and June 30, 2025, Kogan.com repurchased 2,424,252 shares, or 2.43% of issued capital, for AUD 11.16 million as the final tranche of the buyback (company filing).
  • The completed buyback is expected to enhance earnings per share by reducing the share count, while also signaling management confidence in the company’s valuation (analysis of company filing).

Valuation Changes

  • The fair value estimate has fallen moderately from A$4.05 to A$3.30 per share, reflecting a more cautious outlook.
  • The discount rate has risen slightly from 7.92% to about 8.08%, indicating a modest increase in perceived risk.
  • The revenue growth assumption has fallen meaningfully from about 8.48% to roughly 6.82% per year.
  • The net profit margin assumption has declined from around 4.90% to about 4.11%, suggesting expectations of softer profitability.
  • The future P/E multiple has risen slightly from roughly 16.1x to about 16.7x, implying a small uplift in the valuation multiple applied to future earnings.

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