Update shared on 08 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 4.76%Despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, weaker volume growth, tariff headwinds, and management instability tempering the outlook and limiting near-term upside, analysts have modestly raised Centuria Capital Group's consensus price target from A$2.22 to A$2.32.
Analyst Commentary
- Ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and a soft demand backdrop continue to weigh on CN’s outlook and earnings forecasts.
- Volume growth has been weaker than expected, particularly in grain and merchandise segments, impacting operating results and margin expansion.
- Tariff-related headwinds and management instability, including the abrupt departure of the chief commercial officer, have raised concerns over commercial strategy and downside risks to estimates.
- Share buybacks have been well below expectations, providing less support to earnings per share growth.
- Despite occasional positive signals, such as better-than-feared rail volumes and potential return of investor interest, analysts generally see risk/reward as balanced with limited immediate upside due to sector-wide stagnation.
What's in the News
- Centuria Capital Group provided earnings guidance for fiscal year 2026, forecasting a 10% increase in operating earnings and an operating EPS of $0.134 (Key Development, 2025-08-19).
- The group acquired the Port Adelaide Distribution Centre for $216 million at a substantial discount, forming the new Centuria Port Adelaide Industrial Fund (CPAIF), with a targeted equity raise of $116 million; the fund offers forecast distributions of 7.5% p.a. for FY26 and 8.5% for FY27 and will be open to various investor classes starting September 2025 (Key Development, 2025-08-05).
- The Port Adelaide asset consists of thirteen buildings across nine titles, 93% occupancy, and a 3.4-year WALE; major tenants include Visy Logistics, Ameropa Australia, Toll Transport, and Spendless Shoes, benefiting from potential future redevelopment and proximity to major infrastructure projects (Key Development, 2025-08-05).
- Centuria Capital Group announced a final distribution of 5.20 cents per stapled security for the period ending 30 June 2025, with payment scheduled for 19 August 2025 (Key Development, 2025-06-19).
- (No relevant periodical news for Centuria Capital Group; the news provided pertains to Canadian National Railway and is not applicable.)
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Centuria Capital Group
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from A$2.22 to A$2.32.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Centuria Capital Group has fallen from -6.6% per annum to -7.0% per annum.
- The Future P/E for Centuria Capital Group has risen slightly from 17.22x to 17.85x.
Disclaimer
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