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Update shared on29 Jul 2025

Fair value Increased 26%
AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
AU$10.25
35.3% overvalued intrinsic discount
27 Aug
AU$13.87
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1Y
96.5%
7D
-3.1%

The significant upward revision in Lynas Rare Earths' price target is primarily driven by higher future P/E expectations despite slightly reduced revenue growth forecasts, resulting in a new consensus fair value of A$9.87.


What's in the News


  • China is delaying approvals for rare-earth magnet exports to the U.S., resulting in constrained supplies for Western manufacturers and raising concerns about persistent shortages. (The Wall Street Journal, 2025-06-26)
  • Despite recent promises to ease export rules, Western companies—including Lynas Rare Earths—are still receiving minimal shipments, suggesting Chinese restrictions may remain entrenched. (The Wall Street Journal, 2025-06-26)
  • Continued supply challenges highlight ongoing risks to global manufacturing stemming from China's dominant position in the rare earths market. (The Wall Street Journal, 2025-06-26)
  • China’s Ministry of Commerce has required rare-earth firms to submit detailed personnel lists of technical experts, aiming to catalog and monitor them to prevent trade-secret leaks abroad. (The Wall Street Journal, 2025-06-25)
  • Some Chinese rare earth experts have reportedly been asked to surrender their passports to prevent unauthorized travel, underscoring increased government control over personnel in the industry. (The Wall Street Journal, 2025-06-25)

Valuation Changes


Summary of Valuation Changes for Lynas Rare Earths

  • The Consensus Analyst Price Target has significantly risen from A$7.92 to A$9.87.
  • The Future P/E for Lynas Rare Earths has significantly risen from 16.04x to 21.50x.
  • The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Lynas Rare Earths has fallen from 49.4% per annum to 46.2% per annum.

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.