Narrative updates are currently in beta.

Back to narrative

Prattville Expansion And Key Partnerships Will Strengthen Future Market Position In Construction

JHX logo
JHX
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 11 Feb 2025

Update shared on21 Aug 2025

Fair value Decreased 17%
Previous
AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
AU$36.16
19.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
21 Aug
AU$28.98
Loading
1Y
-42.9%
7D
-36.5%

Following weaker-than-expected Q1 results, cautious FY26 guidance, and renewed concerns over North American market share and demand, analysts have trimmed their outlook for James Hardie Industries despite the growth potential from the Azek acquisition, resulting in a substantial reduction in the consensus price target from A$43.66 to A$36.16.


Analyst Commentary


  • Bullish analysts highlight James Hardie's market leadership in fast-growing siding and composite decking segments, with strong brand recognition and dominant North American market positions.
  • The Azek acquisition is seen as a major catalyst, expected to accelerate growth, broaden the product portfolio, create commercial synergies, and enable margin expansion.
  • Bearish analysts note that Q1 results and FY26 guidance were significantly below consensus, driven by a double-digit decline in North American siding volumes due to weak homebuilder demand and ongoing inventory reductions.
  • Concerns have emerged regarding potential market share losses in siding, raising questions over James Hardie’s ability to maintain its competitive advantage in the key U.S. market.
  • Despite trimmed earnings estimates due to the dilutionary impact of acquisitions, some bullish analysts see the company as an under-appreciated secular growth story with the potential to deliver 10-12% long-term sales growth and 12-15% EBITDA growth.

What's in the News


  • James Hardie Industries plc (ASX:JHX) dropped from S&P/ASX 20 Index

Valuation Changes


Summary of Valuation Changes for James Hardie Industries

  • The Consensus Analyst Price Target has significantly fallen from A$43.66 to A$36.16.
  • The Future P/E for James Hardie Industries has significantly risen from 21.22x to 44.13x.
  • The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for James Hardie Industries has significantly fallen from 20.8% per annum to 16.4% per annum.

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.