Update shared on 14 Dec 2025
Fair value Decreased 17%Analysts have trimmed their price target for Hillgrove Resources from A$0.06 to A$0.05, reflecting a slightly higher discount rate, despite upgraded expectations for revenue growth, profit margins, and a lower future price to earnings multiple.
What's in the News
- Issued new guidance indicating improved fourth quarter 2025 sales volumes, supported by Nugent stoping and available inventory, and reaffirmed full year 2025 copper production guidance of 11,000 to 11,500 tonnes (Corporate Guidance)
- Reported third quarter 2025 operating results with copper production up 8% to 2,808 tonnes, an average realized copper price of $14,447 per tonne, and a 10% reduction in gross all in sustaining costs versus the prior quarter (Operating Results)
- Maintained year to date all in costs at USD 4.24 per pound, in line with the guided range of USD 4.2 to USD 4.45 per pound (Operating Results)
- Completed an AUD 28 million follow on equity offering at AUD 0.035 per share, issuing a combined 800 million ordinary shares at a small discount to the offer price (Follow on Equity Offering)
- Called a special shareholders meeting on November 25, 2025 to ratify tranche 1 shares and approve tranche 2 placement and director participation in the placement (Special Shareholders Meeting)
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: trimmed from A$0.06 to A$0.05, reflecting a moderate downward revision to the implied share valuation.
- Discount Rate: increased from 7.04% to 7.79%, representing a modest rise that places a higher risk and return requirement on projected cash flows.
- Revenue Growth: raised from 10.9% to 12.2%, indicating a slight uplift in expectations for top line expansion.
- Net Profit Margin: increased from 25.2% to 28.1%, suggesting a moderately stronger outlook for operational profitability.
- Future P/E: reduced from 4.46x to 3.29x, marking a meaningful decline that implies a cheaper valuation relative to forecast earnings.
Have other thoughts on Hillgrove Resources?
Create your own narrative on this stock, and estimate its Fair Value using our Valuator tool.
Create NarrativeDisclaimer
AnalystLowTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystLowTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystLowTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.