Update shared on15 Aug 2025
Despite the consensus analyst price target for Coronado Global Resources remaining unchanged at A$0.224, a sharp rise in the future P/E ratio from 6.40x to 9.80x suggests a deterioration in earnings expectations relative to valuation.
What's in the News
- Coronado is preparing to launch a formal asset sale process, opening a data room for potential buyers to acquire 20–30% stakes in either the Curragh or Buchanan mines, following failed talks with JSW Steel and Tata Steel.
- There is heightened buyer interest, particularly for the Buchanan mine in the US, due to strong productivity and a supportive US policy environment, but both flagship mines require coal prices above USD 200/tonne to be profitable against the current price of around USD 180/tonne.
- Coronado faces significant financial pressures, with first-half cash burn at USD 40 million/month, expected to drop to USD 15 million/month, while aggressive domestic competition and higher quality output from rivals are adding further strain.
- Liquidity has recently been boosted by a USD 150 million prepayment and supply agreement with Stanwell Corp, paired with a USD 150 million ABL refinancing from Oaktree Capital, supporting near-term funding and reducing the impact of low coal prices.
- Several strategic options, including selling minority or controlling stakes in assets or the whole business, are being explored; Indonesian firms (BUMA, Sinar Mas), New Hope Coal, and private equity are potential suitors, as Coronado’s future remains uncertain amidst ongoing debt covenant risks.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Coronado Global Resources
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, at A$0.224.
- The Future P/E for Coronado Global Resources has significantly risen from 6.40x to 9.80x.
- The Net Profit Margin for Coronado Global Resources remained effectively unchanged, at 1.79%.
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