Update shared on 25 Nov 2025
Analysts have slightly lowered their price target for AUB Group, citing modest underperformance in third-quarter results and tempered outlooks. The consensus target has moved down by approximately $2.50 to reflect softer near-term expectations in revenue and loan growth.
Analyst Commentary
Recent street research provides a mixed outlook for AUB Group, highlighting both potential opportunities and ongoing concerns for the company. Below are key perspectives drawn from analyst coverage following the latest quarterly results.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts highlight expectations for loan growth to improve heading into the fourth quarter and through 2026, suggesting near-term headwinds could ease over time.
- Valuation adjustments recognize a compelling buying opportunity, especially as the midcap bank group in general has underperformed year to date.
- A steepening yield curve with lower short-end rates is considered an ideal macroeconomic backdrop for firms like AUB Group. This environment could potentially support future margin expansion.
- The company maintains favorable ratings from several research firms, indicating continued confidence in its long-term execution and ability to rebound from recent softness.
- Bearish analysts note the company's modest underperformance in the third quarter, led by a net interest margin miss largely associated with lower accretion.
- Earnings reports and calls have left some cautious, with more tempered expectations around forward growth and revenue outlook.
- Recent downward revisions to the price target reflect concerns over lighter loan growth and a softer near-term performance forecast.
- There is a perception that recent results were underwhelming compared to original projections. This has prompted some reevaluation of growth trajectories.
What's in the News
- Arbutus Pte. Limited made an unsolicited, confidential and non-binding proposal to acquire AUB Group Limited for AUD 5 billion. The company recently increased its offer from AUD 43 to AUD 45 per share. The deal remains subject to due diligence and board approval. (Key Developments)
- AUB Group paused trading of its shares on 27 October 2025 amid market speculation that private equity firm EQT AB has engaged in takeover discussions with the company. AUB is expected to provide more information to the ASX before trading resumes on 28 October 2025. (Key Developments)
- AUB Group's long-serving Chief Financial Officer, Mark Shanahan, is stepping down. Nick Dryden, the current Group Deputy CFO, will serve as Interim CFO starting 16 September 2025 as the company searches for a permanent appointment. (Key Developments)
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value remains unchanged at A$42.32, indicating no recent adjustment in underlying company worth estimates.
- Discount Rate is steady at 6.67%, reflecting stable expectations for capital cost and risk.
- Revenue Growth projection is virtually flat, with a minimal decrease to 14.56% from 14.56% previously.
- Net Profit Margin is essentially unchanged, moving marginally higher to 12.93%.
- Future P/E ratio stays steady at 26.14x, showing little to no change in forward earnings valuation assumptions.
Disclaimer
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