Update shared on04 Sep 2025
Despite improved business momentum, sector tailwinds, and greater earnings diversification supporting a positive outlook, the Challenger consensus Analyst Price Target remained unchanged at A$8.83.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts cite strong Q2 results and accelerating business momentum as key drivers for upward price target revisions.
- Favorable shifts in market narratives, from concerns over private equity dilution to expectations of earnings accretion and multiple expansion, are supporting higher valuations.
- Improved fundraising outlook and broadening momentum across credit, insurance, private wealth, and AlpInvest are expected to enhance earnings diversification.
- Robust trading activity and a supportive Federal funds rate environment are seen as positive tailwinds for net interest income and overall sector health.
- Valuation discounts are viewed as overdone, with improving capital markets likely to benefit Carlyle’s private equity operations and re-rate the stock higher.
What's in the News
- Starbucks has advanced private equity firms including Carlyle, KKR, Hillhouse, and Primavera, as well as JD.com and Tencent, to the second round for potential investment in its China business, granting them access to due diligence (Bloomberg).
- The Trump administration plans to sign an executive order making private market investments, such as private equity, accessible in U.S. 401(k) retirement plans, benefiting firms like KKR, Carlyle, Blackstone, BlackRock, and Apollo (WSJ).
- Meta is seeking to raise $29B—$3B in equity and $26B in debt—from private capital partners including Apollo, KKR, Brookfield, Carlyle, and Pimco to fund its U.S. AI data center expansion (Financial Times).
- TPG and Aquarian Holdings have submitted final-round bids for Brighthouse Financial at a small premium to its market value, while Blackstone, Apollo, and Carlyle dropped out of the process (Financial Times).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Challenger
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, at A$8.83.
- The Discount Rate for Challenger remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 9.72% to 9.77%.
- The Future P/E for Challenger remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 14.57x to 14.59x.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.