Update shared on 16 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 1.87%The analyst price target for Aristocrat Leisure has been adjusted downward from $74.52 to $73.12. This change reflects revised assumptions around future revenue growth and profit margin improvements, as highlighted by analysts reviewing the company’s updated financial outlook.
Analyst Commentary
Analyst sentiment on Aristocrat Leisure's outlook is nuanced, with both optimism about the company's long-term prospects and caution regarding near-term headwinds and execution risks. The following summarizes recent analyst perspectives as reflected in their coverage updates and target adjustments.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts continue to see room for multiple re-rating. They expect premium gains from a combination of modest growth in market share and improvements in profit margins.
- There is confidence in the company’s ability to drive policy and development growth, underpinned by steady underwriting strength and resilient earnings quality.
- The market is anticipated to reward strong, sustained returns on equity, with potential for above-industry-average ROE in coming quarters.
- Growth in fee-based income streams and successful diversification of offerings are highlighted as catalysts for long-term valuation upside.
- Bearish analysts express concern over the pace of revenue growth, as recent adjustments indicate tempered expectations for top-line expansion.
- Some caution that the normalization of rate increases could slow acceleration in core metrics, such as user or policyholder growth, impacting revenue momentum.
- Competitive pressures and increasing capital costs are seen as risks that could compress margins and limit upside potential in coming cycles.
- Execution risks tied to integrating new business segments or sustaining higher growth rates may weigh on near-term valuation re-rating.
What's in the News
- Aristocrat Leisure Limited announced an ordinary dividend of AUD 0.49 per share for the six months ended September 30, 2025. The record date is November 26, 2025, and payment is scheduled for December 8, 2025 (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has decreased modestly from A$74.52 to A$73.12, reflecting updated outlooks on company fundamentals.
- Discount Rate has risen slightly from 7.92% to 7.93%, indicating a marginal increase in the risk premium applied to future cash flows.
- Revenue Growth projections have increased materially, moving from 2.15% to 5.27%. This signals more optimistic expectations for top-line expansion.
- Net Profit Margin is projected to improve from 26.87% to 27.09%, supporting incremental gains in profitability.
- Future P/E multiple has fallen from 29.28x to 26.79x. This suggests a market view of lower valuation multiples on anticipated earnings.
Disclaimer
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