Update shared on 12 Dec 2025
Analysts have modestly lowered their price target for Commonwealth Bank of Australia to A$146.00, reflecting slightly softer long term revenue growth assumptions, a marginally reduced discount rate, and a small upgrade to forecast profit margins and future earnings multiples.
Analyst Commentary
Bullish analysts view the modest trim to the A$146.00 price target as a recalibration rather than a reversal, arguing that Commonwealth Bank of Australia continues to justify a premium valuation versus domestic peers.
They point to the bank's track record of disciplined capital allocation and resilient earnings through the rate cycle as key factors supporting elevated multiples, even as long term revenue growth expectations are nudged lower.
Several bullish analysts also highlight that the small upgrade to forecast profit margins leaves room for positive surprises if cost efficiencies accelerate or bad debt charges remain benign relative to historical averages.
In addition, ongoing digital investment and strong customer engagement metrics are seen as underappreciated drivers of fee income growth and cross sell opportunities, which could support both top line expansion and returns on equity over the medium term.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts argue that the updated A$146.00 target still embeds a valuation premium that is justified by Commonwealth Bank of Australia's return profile and balance sheet strength.
- Improving margin forecasts are described as evidence of execution on cost control and pricing, which could translate into upside risk to consensus earnings estimates.
- The combination of credit quality and excess capital capacity is viewed as a platform for shareholder returns, including dividends and potential buybacks, which supports total return potential.
- Over the longer term, bullish analysts describe digital leadership and scale advantages as structural drivers that can support earnings growth even in a softer macro environment.
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target remained unchanged at A$146.00, indicating no revision to the central valuation outcome despite model adjustments.
- Discount Rate edged down slightly from 7.83 percent to 7.79 percent, modestly increasing the present value of projected cash flows.
- Revenue Growth assumptions were trimmed slightly from 7.05 percent to 6.97 percent, reflecting a marginally softer long term outlook.
- Net Profit Margin forecast rose slightly from 36.02 percent to 36.46 percent, implying a modest improvement in expected profitability.
- Future P/E multiple eased slightly from 25.11x to 24.84x, signaling a small reduction in the valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.
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