ANZ: Earnings Stability And Cost Pressures Will Shape Performance Ahead

Analysts have raised the fair value estimate for ANZ Group Holdings slightly to $34.24 from $33.91. They cited stable profit margins, a marginally higher discount rate, and updated industry comparisons supporting the adjustment.

Analyst Commentary

Analyst perspectives on ANZ Group Holdings' recent valuation adjustment shed light on both strengths and ongoing considerations for investors.

• Bullish analysts point to stability in profit margins, which supports the company's ability to maintain earnings consistency even as sector dynamics shift.
• Recent changes to discount rates are seen as reflecting a sound and flexible approach to valuation. This demonstrates resilience in varying economic conditions.
• Industry benchmarks used in the updated valuation indicate ANZ is performing competitively compared to its peers. This aligns with positive long-term growth expectations.
• The company's steady financial execution is underscored by modest upward adjustments in fair value estimates. This signals confidence in management’s strategy.

• Bearish analysts caution that higher discount rates, while reflective of current conditions, could limit upside if macroeconomic pressures persist.
• Ongoing industry consolidation poses risks of intensified competition, which could impact ANZ’s market share and profitability.
• There remains some concern over maintaining cost efficiencies in a shifting regulatory and economic environment. This could pressure margins over the medium term.

What's in the News

• ANZ Group Holdings announced plans to amend its constitution at the December 2025 AGM, allowing shareholders to express advisory opinions or requests on board actions via ordinary resolutions at general meetings. These resolutions will be non-binding and must concern matters of material relevance to the company. (Key Developments)
• The company updated its ongoing share buyback program, completing the repurchase of 39,465,384 shares (1.32% of shares outstanding) for a total of AUD 1,174.82 million as of October 2025. (Key Developments)
• ANZ reached an agreement with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission to resolve five regulatory matters, incurring penalties totaling $240 million for issues including bond management, inaccurate data reporting, customer interest payments, and compliance failures related to hardship notices and deceased estates. (Key Developments)
• As part of its restructuring, ANZ will reduce its workforce by approximately 3,500 employees by September 2026. The goal is to simplify operations, focus on customer priorities, and reduce internal complexity. Affected staff will receive support services and career planning assistance. (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

• The Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly, increasing from A$33.91 to A$34.24 per share.
• The Discount Rate has edged higher, moving from 7.79% to 7.82%.
• Revenue Growth projections are marginally lower, adjusting from 4.34% to 4.32%.
• The Net Profit Margin remains nearly unchanged, with a slight decrease from 32.74% to 32.73%.
• The Future P/E Ratio (price-to-earnings) has increased modestly, from 15.95x to 16.13x.