BMA: Higher Capital Strength Will Support Post Election Credit Upside

Analysts have raised their price target on Banco Macro to $111 from ARS 18,000, reflecting higher expected revenue growth, expanding profit margins and the bank's strong capital position relative to other Argentine peers.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research reflects a generally constructive stance on Banco Macro, with several upgrades and positive initiations following Argentina's improved macroeconomic outlook and post election policy visibility.

Bullish analysts highlight the bank's robust capital metrics and resilient profitability, while more cautious voices point to political and macro risks that could affect execution and credit growth over the medium term.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts view Banco Macro's sector leading capital ratio, including a CET1 level well above local peers, as a key buffer that supports higher sustainable growth and justifies a premium valuation multiple.
• Stable net interest margins and lower perceived asset quality risks are seen as indicators of stronger earnings visibility, underpinning the higher dollar price targets and upgrades to Buy or Outperform.
• Improved political clarity after the elections is expected to reduce risk premia and trigger a virtuous credit cycle, with loan growth and fee income expansion supporting upside to current earnings forecasts.
• Goldman Sachs and other major institutions emphasize that, within Argentine banks, Banco Macro is relatively better positioned to capture operating leverage as inflation decelerates and funding costs normalize.

Bearish Takeaways

• Some bearish analysts maintain a more defensive stance around the Argentine banking sector, noting that despite upgrades, earnings remain sensitive to policy shifts and a still fragile macro environment.
• The reduction of certain price targets, even alongside rating upgrades, signals concern that near term volatility and slower than expected reforms could limit valuation rerating potential.
• Execution risk around translating strong capital levels into profitable, high quality loan growth remains a key watchpoint, particularly if consumer demand softens or credit spreads widen.
• Lingering political and regulatory uncertainty, especially heading into future electoral cycles, could cap multiples and lead to periodic bouts of profit taking, even for better positioned banks like Banco Macro.

What's in the News

• U.S. and global banks have shelved plans for a $20 billion bailout package for Argentina, shifting instead to a smaller, short term loan facility. This affects sentiment and funding expectations for Argentine banks including Banco Macro (Wall Street Journal).
• Banco Macro's board approved the payment of installment No. 6 of a large cash dividend totaling ARS 37.45 billion, equivalent to ARS 58.5664 per share, with a record date of November 26, 2025, and payment starting November 27, 2025 (company board resolution).
• The board held a meeting on November 12, 2025, with the main agenda item to consider and approve the payment of the cash dividend to shareholders (company board meeting disclosure).
• Banco Macro announced a share repurchase program of up to 30,000,000 shares, representing 10% of its outstanding share capital, for a total of ARS 225 billion, at a maximum price of ARS 7,500 per share, with an initial term of 60 days and potential extensions (company buyback announcement).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value: Unchanged at ARS 16,877.89 per share, indicating no revision to the long term intrinsic value estimate.
• Discount Rate: Fallen slightly from 29.36 percent to 29.31 percent, reflecting a modest reduction in perceived risk.
• Revenue Growth: Risen meaningfully from 28.23 percent to 36.41 percent, signaling stronger expectations for top line expansion.
• Net Profit Margin: Increased moderately from 20.51 percent to 22.86 percent, indicating improved profitability assumptions.
• Future P/E: Declined from 17.60x to 15.09x, suggesting a lower multiple applied to forward earnings despite the stronger growth outlook.