BMA: Higher Capital Ratios And Political Tailwinds Will Support Sustained Upside

Analysts have raised their price target for Banco Macro from ARS 7,700 to ARS 18,000. They cite improved capital strength, lower asset risk, and a supportive outlook following positive economic and political developments in Argentina.

Analyst Commentary

Analyst opinions on Banco Macro have shifted markedly in recent weeks, reflecting a changing risk environment and renewed optimism for Argentina’s banking sector. Several updates from major research firms highlight both upbeat developments and underlying risks for investors following the recent election and improved macroeconomic outlook.

• Bullish analysts point to Banco Macro’s industry-leading capital ratio. This positions the bank well to sustain growth and navigate uncertainties in the Argentine market.
• Recent upgrades emphasize the stability of the bank’s net interest margin, aided by lower inflation and positive economic momentum following the election.
• The reduced asset quality risk, especially with a shift toward a more defensive lending stance, is seen as supporting long-term valuation upside.
• Several analysts raise the prospect of a "virtuous credit cycle." They suggest the current political environment reduces obstacles for credit expansion and improved profitability through 2027.

• Some recent downgrades note that uncertainty remains, particularly if macroeconomic challenges persist or if expected reforms stall. This could potentially dampen loan demand and compress net interest margins.
• Analysts caution that increased cost of funding could impact profitability, especially if market volatility returns or policy shifts unexpectedly.
• There are concerns over the sustainability of current share rallies. Valuations may be at risk should economic progress lose momentum following the election.

What's in the News

• U.S. lenders have put aside a planned $20 billion bailout for Argentina and are instead offering a smaller, short-term loan package. This decision affects financial support for Argentine banks such as Banco Macro (Wall Street Journal).
• Banco Macro has announced a significant cash dividend. The board has approved an instalment of ARS 37.4 billion, which is equivalent to over ARS 58.56 per share, to be paid from November 27, 2025 (Board Resolutions).
• The board of Banco Macro has recently authorized a share repurchase program to buy back up to 30 million shares, representing 10% of its issued share capital, with a maximum outlay of ARS 225 billion.

Valuation Changes

• The Fair Value Estimate has increased marginally from ARS 16,877.89 to ARS 16,877.89, reflecting a slight upward revision.
• The Discount Rate has decreased fractionally from 29.37% to 29.36%, suggesting a minor reduction in perceived risk.
• The Revenue Growth Projection has fallen from 33.56% to 28.23%, indicating lowered expectations for top-line expansion.
• The Net Profit Margin has decreased slightly from 20.97% to 20.51%, signifying a modest pullback in expected profitability.
• The Future P/E Ratio has risen from 15.24x to 17.60x, pointing to a higher valuation multiple being assigned to future earnings.