Lacklustre Performance Is Driving Bauba Resources Limited's (JSE:BAU) 26% Price Drop

By
Simply Wall St
Published
September 24, 2020

Unfortunately for some shareholders, the Bauba Resources Limited (JSE:BAU) share price has dived 26% in the last thirty days, prolonging recent pain. The recent drop completes a disastrous twelve months for shareholders, who are sitting on a 58% loss during that time.

Following the heavy fall in price, Bauba Resources' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 2.7x might make it look like a strong buy right now compared to the market in South Africa, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 11x and even P/E's above 20x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly reduced P/E.

Bauba Resources certainly has been doing a great job lately as it's been growing earnings at a really rapid pace. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to degrade substantially, which has repressed the P/E. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

See our latest analysis for Bauba Resources

JSE:BAU Price Based on Past Earnings September 24th 2020
Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Bauba Resources will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/E?

Bauba Resources' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very poor growth or even falling earnings, and importantly, perform much worse than the market.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 117%. Although, its longer-term performance hasn't been as strong with three-year EPS growth being relatively non-existent overall. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.

This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 20% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

With this information, we can see why Bauba Resources is trading at a P/E lower than the market. It seems most investors are expecting to see the recent limited growth rates continue into the future and are only willing to pay a reduced amount for the stock.

The Key Takeaway

Bauba Resources' P/E looks about as weak as its stock price lately. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

As we suspected, our examination of Bauba Resources revealed its three-year earnings trends are contributing to its low P/E, given they look worse than current market expectations. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Bauba Resources (of which 1 is potentially serious!) you should know about.

You might be able to find a better investment than Bauba Resources. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a P/E below 20x (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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