Stock Analysis

Is AngloGold Ashanti (JSE:ANG) A Risky Investment?

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JSE:ANG
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Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that AngloGold Ashanti Limited (JSE:ANG) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

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What Is AngloGold Ashanti's Debt?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that AngloGold Ashanti had US$1.93b of debt in December 2020, down from US$2.03b, one year before. However, it also had US$1.33b in cash, and so its net debt is US$601.0m.

debt-equity-history-analysis
JSE:ANG Debt to Equity History March 21st 2021

How Strong Is AngloGold Ashanti's Balance Sheet?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that AngloGold Ashanti had liabilities of US$959.0m due within 12 months and liabilities of US$2.97b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$1.33b as well as receivables valued at US$229.0m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$2.37b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

AngloGold Ashanti has a market capitalization of US$9.17b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

AngloGold Ashanti's net debt is only 0.31 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 13.2 times the size. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. Even more impressive was the fact that AngloGold Ashanti grew its EBIT by 129% over twelve months. That boost will make it even easier to pay down debt going forward. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine AngloGold Ashanti's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, AngloGold Ashanti recorded free cash flow worth 61% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

Our View

Happily, AngloGold Ashanti's impressive interest cover implies it has the upper hand on its debt. And that's just the beginning of the good news since its EBIT growth rate is also very heartening. Zooming out, AngloGold Ashanti seems to use debt quite reasonably; and that gets the nod from us. While debt does bring risk, when used wisely it can also bring a higher return on equity. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that AngloGold Ashanti is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

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