AngloGold Ashanti Limited's (JSE:ANG) Stock Is Going Strong: Is the Market Following Fundamentals?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
January 01, 2022
JSE:ANG
Source: Shutterstock

AngloGold Ashanti's (JSE:ANG) stock is up by a considerable 38% over the past three months. Given the company's impressive performance, we decided to study its financial indicators more closely as a company's financial health over the long-term usually dictates market outcomes. Particularly, we will be paying attention to AngloGold Ashanti's ROE today.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

Check out our latest analysis for AngloGold Ashanti

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for AngloGold Ashanti is:

25% = US$948m ÷ US$3.9b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2021).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. One way to conceptualize this is that for each ZAR1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made ZAR0.25 in profit.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

AngloGold Ashanti's Earnings Growth And 25% ROE

At first glance, AngloGold Ashanti seems to have a decent ROE. Even so, when compared with the average industry ROE of 33%, we aren't very excited. That being the case, the significant five-year 59% net income growth reported by AngloGold Ashanti comes as a pleasant surprise. Therefore, there could be other causes behind this growth. For instance, the company has a low payout ratio or is being managed efficiently. However, not to forget, the company does have a decent ROE to begin with, just that it is lower than the industry average. So this also does lend some color to the high earnings growth seen by the company.

As a next step, we compared AngloGold Ashanti's net income growth with the industry, and pleasingly, we found that the growth seen by the company is higher than the average industry growth of 32%.

past-earnings-growth
JSE:ANG Past Earnings Growth January 1st 2022

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Is AngloGold Ashanti fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Is AngloGold Ashanti Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

AngloGold Ashanti's three-year median payout ratio to shareholders is 13%, which is quite low. This implies that the company is retaining 87% of its profits. So it seems like the management is reinvesting profits heavily to grow its business and this reflects in its earnings growth number.

Moreover, AngloGold Ashanti is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of paying a dividend for at least ten years. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 16% over the next three years. Consequently, the higher expected payout ratio explains the decline in the company's expected ROE (to 12%) over the same period.

Summary

Overall, we are quite pleased with AngloGold Ashanti's performance. Specifically, we like that it has been reinvesting a high portion of its profits at a moderate rate of return, resulting in earnings expansion. With that said, the latest industry analyst forecasts reveal that the company's earnings growth is expected to slow down. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

Discounted cash flow calculation for every stock

Simply Wall St does a detailed discounted cash flow calculation every 6 hours for every stock on the market, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any company just search here. It’s FREE.

Make Confident Investment Decisions

Simply Wall St's Editorial Team provides unbiased, factual reporting on global stocks using in-depth fundamental analysis.
Find out more about our editorial guidelines and team.