Should Northwest Natural's (NWN) Upgraded Earnings Guidance Prompt a Reassessment of Its 2025 Outlook?

• In November 2025, Northwest Natural Holding Company updated its 2025 earnings guidance, anticipating results above the midpoint of its revised GAAP EPS range of US$2.59 to US$2.79, and reported third-quarter sales of US$164.73 million with a net loss of US$29.89 million. The company also highlighted year-to-date sales growth to US$895.21 million and net income of US$55.53 million, marking improvements over the prior year.
• An interesting insight is that despite a quarterly loss, Northwest Natural's improved year-to-date net income and confident guidance reflect resilience in operations and potentially growing confidence in future earnings power.
• We will explore how Northwest Natural's guidance upgrade and strong year-to-date results could reshape its earnings outlook and risk profile.

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Northwest Natural Holding Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Northwest Natural Holding today, one needs to believe in the long-term stability of regulated gas utility earnings, steady customer growth, especially in Texas, and the company's ability to navigate regulatory and decarbonization pressures. The recent management guidance upgrade and year-to-date profit improvement support confidence in near-term earnings, but do not materially change the main catalyst, which is successful expansion and execution in Texas, or the key risk, which remains regulatory and policy uncertainty related to decarbonization.

Among recent announcements, the company's third-quarter and year-to-date earnings results stand out, with net income and sales sharply higher than a year ago. This streak of financial outperformance is closely tied to strong contributions from recent Texas acquisitions and underlines why growth in that market is central to any positive outlook, though it does little to reduce ongoing exposure to regulatory and policy shifts affecting the gas utility sector.

By contrast, investors should be aware that even as near-term earnings rise, Northwest Natural's exposure to future regulatory actions...

Read the full narrative on Northwest Natural Holding (it's free!)

Northwest Natural Holding's outlook projects $1.6 billion in revenue and $153.7 million in earnings by 2028. This is based on an annual revenue growth rate of 8.5% and a $50.4 million increase in earnings from the current $103.3 million.

Uncover how Northwest Natural Holding's forecasts yield a $52.75 fair value, a 9% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Community fair value estimates for Northwest Natural range from US$40.85 to US$52.75, with just two distinct perspectives highlighted by the Simply Wall St Community. Such diversity reflects how views can diverge, especially when regulatory risks remain central to the company's future.

Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Northwest Natural Holding - why the stock might be worth as much as 9% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Northwest Natural Holding Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Northwest Natural Holding research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Northwest Natural Holding research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Northwest Natural Holding's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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