Stock Analysis

CMS Energy (NYSE:CMS) Use Of Debt Could Be Considered Risky

NYSE:CMS
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David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that CMS Energy Corporation (NYSE:CMS) does use debt in its business. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for CMS Energy

How Much Debt Does CMS Energy Carry?

As you can see below, at the end of December 2023, CMS Energy had US$15.6b of debt, up from US$14.2b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. And it doesn't have much cash, so its net debt is about the same.

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NYSE:CMS Debt to Equity History March 1st 2024

How Healthy Is CMS Energy's Balance Sheet?

According to the last reported balance sheet, CMS Energy had liabilities of US$2.90b due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$22.5b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$227.0m as well as receivables valued at US$944.0m due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$24.2b.

Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's massive market capitalization of US$16.8b, we think shareholders really should watch CMS Energy's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

Weak interest cover of 2.3 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 6.2 hit our confidence in CMS Energy like a one-two punch to the gut. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. Notably, CMS Energy's EBIT was pretty flat over the last year, which isn't ideal given the debt load. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if CMS Energy can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, CMS Energy burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

Our View

On the face of it, CMS Energy's net debt to EBITDA left us tentative about the stock, and its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least its EBIT growth rate is not so bad. It's also worth noting that CMS Energy is in the Integrated Utilities industry, which is often considered to be quite defensive. After considering the datapoints discussed, we think CMS Energy has too much debt. That sort of riskiness is ok for some, but it certainly doesn't float our boat. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for CMS Energy (of which 1 is concerning!) you should know about.

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether CMS Energy is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.