Stock Analysis

Avangrid, Inc.'s (NYSE:AGR) Stock Has Shown Weakness Lately But Financial Prospects Look Decent: Is The Market Wrong?

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NYSE:AGR
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It is hard to get excited after looking at Avangrid's (NYSE:AGR) recent performance, when its stock has declined 9.6% over the past month. But if you pay close attention, you might find that its key financial indicators look quite decent, which could mean that the stock could potentially rise in the long-term given how markets usually reward more resilient long-term fundamentals. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Avangrid's ROE today.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

See our latest analysis for Avangrid

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Avangrid is:

4.1% = US$826m ÷ US$20b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2022).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. So, this means that for every $1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of $0.04.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Avangrid's Earnings Growth And 4.1% ROE

When you first look at it, Avangrid's ROE doesn't look that attractive. A quick further study shows that the company's ROE doesn't compare favorably to the industry average of 8.9% either. However, the moderate 10% net income growth seen by Avangrid over the past five years is definitely a positive. So, the growth in the company's earnings could probably have been caused by other variables. Such as - high earnings retention or an efficient management in place.

Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that Avangrid's growth is quite high when compared to the industry average growth of 6.5% in the same period, which is great to see.

past-earnings-growth
NYSE:AGR Past Earnings Growth September 26th 2022

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Avangrid is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Avangrid Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Avangrid has a significant three-year median payout ratio of 82%, meaning that it is left with only 18% to reinvest into its business. This implies that the company has been able to achieve decent earnings growth despite returning most of its profits to shareholders.

Besides, Avangrid has been paying dividends over a period of seven years. This shows that the company is committed to sharing profits with its shareholders. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company is expected to keep paying out approximately 72% of its profits over the next three years. Regardless, the future ROE for Avangrid is predicted to rise to 4.9% despite there being not much change expected in its payout ratio.

Summary

Overall, we feel that Avangrid certainly does have some positive factors to consider. Namely, its high earnings growth. We do however feel that the earnings growth number could have been even higher, had the company been reinvesting more of its earnings and paid out less dividends. Having said that, the company's earnings growth is expected to slow down, as forecasted in the current analyst estimates. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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