How Investors May Respond To Ameren (AEE) Requiring Long-Term Contracts From New High-Usage Customers

• Earlier this month, the Missouri Public Service Commission approved a new large-load user rate structure for Ameren Missouri, requiring new, high-usage business customers to pay 100% of direct interconnection costs upfront and commit to long-term contracts.
• This measure aims to balance the integration of up to 2 gigawatts of new energy demand by 2032 while ensuring existing customers remain protected from costs, potentially influencing economic growth and future utility planning in Missouri.
• Let's examine how these long-term contract requirements for new large-load users could shape Ameren's investment narrative and its future outlook.

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Ameren Investment Narrative Recap

Ameren’s long-term story rests on the premise that data center and industrial demand will continue propelling utility sales, supported by robust regulatory backing. The new large-load user rate structure, while clearly supportive of cost recovery and grid investment planning, does not materially alter the near-term catalyst: timely execution and ramp-up of long-term energy contracts with new customers. However, it does offer some mitigation against the risk of over-investment if demand materializes more slowly than planned.

The company’s recent move to raise its 2025 and 2026 earnings guidance is the most relevant announcement to consider alongside this regulatory update, emphasizing management’s confidence in Ameren’s ability to unlock new revenue and earnings streams. This higher outlook is built, in part, on expectations for stronger grid demand tied to large-load customer agreements, precisely the type of business that this new framework targets.

On the other hand, investors should be aware that if data center demand growth or contract execution lags behind expectations, then…

Read the full narrative on Ameren (it's free!)

Ameren's narrative projects $9.7 billion revenue and $1.7 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 6.2% yearly revenue growth and a $0.5 billion earnings increase from $1.2 billion.

Uncover how Ameren's forecasts yield a $112.57 fair value, a 7% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for Ameren range from US$85.40 to US$112.57, based on 2 individual analyses. Contract execution risk remains front and center, and your outlook on future customer demand could alter how you view Ameren’s potential for earnings growth and capital returns.

Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Ameren - why the stock might be worth as much as 7% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Ameren Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Ameren research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Ameren research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Ameren's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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