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United Parcel Service

NYSE:UPS
Snowflake Description

Established dividend payer with mediocre balance sheet.

The Snowflake is generated from 30 checks in 5 different areas, read more below.
UPS
NYSE
$89B
Market Cap
  1. Home
  2. US
  3. Transportation
Company description

United Parcel Service, Inc. provides letter and package delivery, specialized transportation, logistics, and financial services. The last earnings update was 81 days ago. More info.


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UPS Share Price and Events
7 Day Returns
-2.5%
NYSE:UPS
-1.2%
US Logistics
-1.2%
US Market
1 Year Returns
-7.8%
NYSE:UPS
-15.5%
US Logistics
3.4%
US Market
UPS Shareholder Return
  7 Day 30 Day 90 Day 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
United Parcel Service (UPS) -2.5% -0.1% -9.5% -7.8% -6.4% -0.3%
US Logistics -1.2% 1.3% -10% -15.5% 3.3% 10.5%
US Market -1.2% 1.2% 1.7% 3.4% 35.5% 41.6%
1 Year Return vs Industry and Market
  • UPS outperformed the Logistics industry which returned -15.5% over the past year.
  • UPS underperformed the Market in United States of America which returned 3.4% over the past year.
Price Volatility
UPS
Industry
5yr Volatility vs Market
Related Companies

Value

 Is United Parcel Service undervalued based on future cash flows and its price relative to the stock market?

Value is all about what a company is worth versus what price it is available for. If you went into a grocery store and all the bananas were on sale at half price, they could be considered undervalued.
INTRINSIC VALUE BASED ON FUTURE CASH FLOWS
Here we compare the current share price of United Parcel Service to its discounted cash flow analysis.value.

The discounted cash flow value is simply looking at what the company is worth today, based on estimates of how much money it is expected to make in the future.
Raw Data

Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for United Parcel Service.

NYSE:UPS Discounted Cash Flow Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Valuation Model 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow Average of 23 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 9.7%
Perpetual Growth Rate 10-Year US Government Bond Rate 2.7%

An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.

Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for NYSE:UPS
Data Point Calculation/ Source Result
Risk-Free Rate 10-Year US Govt Bond Rate 2.7%
Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 6%
Logistics Unlevered Beta Simply Wall St/ S&P Global 1.01
Re-levered Beta = Unlevered beta (1 + (1- tax rate) (Debt/Equity))
= 1.014 (1 + (1- 21%) (28.99%))
1.165
Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm)
1.17
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 2.73% + (1.165 * 5.96%)
9.68%

Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for NYSE:UPS using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model

The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for United Parcel Service is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.

NYSE:UPS DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Levered FCF (USD, Millions) Source Present Value
Discounted (@ 9.68%)
2020 4,256.13 Analyst x8 3,880.65
2021 5,547.33 Analyst x3 4,611.74
2022 5,815.00 Analyst x1 4,407.79
2023 6,467.00 Analyst x1 4,469.56
2024 7,000.91 Est @ 8.26% 4,411.71
2025 7,462.84 Est @ 6.6% 4,287.92
2026 7,868.65 Est @ 5.44% 4,122.24
2027 8,232.61 Est @ 4.63% 3,932.43
2028 8,566.59 Est @ 4.06% 3,730.97
2029 8,880.02 Est @ 3.66% 3,526.29
Present value of next 10 years cash flows $41,381.29
NYSE:UPS DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
Calculation Result
Terminal Value = FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= $8,880.02 × (1 + 2.73%) ÷ (9.68% – 2.73%)
$131,343.29
Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)10
= $131,343.29 ÷ (1 + 9.68%)10
$52,156.91
NYSE:UPS Total Equity Value
Calculation Result
Total Equity Value = Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= $41,381.29 + $52,156.91
$93,538.20
Equity Value per Share
(USD)
= Total value / Shares Outstanding
= $93,538.20 / 860.76
$108.67
NYSE:UPS Discount to Share Price
Calculation Result
Value per share (USD) From above. $108.67
Current discount Discount to share price of $103.31
= -1 x ($103.31 - $108.67) / $108.67
4.9%

Learn more about our DCF calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model .

Current Discount
Amount off the current price United Parcel Service is available for.
Intrinsic value
5%
Share price is $103.31 vs Future cash flow value of $108.67
Current Discount Checks
For United Parcel Service to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the current price. Less than 40% is even better.
  • United Parcel Service's share price is below the future cash flow value, but not at a moderate discount (< 20%).
  • United Parcel Service's share price is below the future cash flow value, but not at a substantial discount (< 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.

The amount the stock market is willing to pay for United Parcel Service's earnings, growth and assets is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Are United Parcel Service's earnings available for a low price, and how does this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Raw Data
NYSE:UPS PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Earnings Per Share * Company Filings (2019-03-31) in USD $5.26
NYSE:UPS Share Price ** NYSE (2019-07-19) in USD $103.31
United States of America Logistics Industry PE Ratio Median Figure of 14 Publicly-Listed Logistics Companies 19.28x
United States of America Market PE Ratio Median Figure of 3,080 Publicly-Listed Companies 17.88x

* Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual GAAP earnings per share excluding extraordinary items.

** Primary Listing of United Parcel Service.

NYSE:UPS PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PE Ratio

= NYSE:UPS Share Price ÷ EPS (both in USD)

= 103.31 ÷ 5.26

19.63x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • United Parcel Service is overvalued based on earnings compared to the US Logistics industry average.
  • United Parcel Service is overvalued based on earnings compared to the United States of America market.
Price based on expected Growth
Does United Parcel Service's expected growth come at a high price?
Raw Data
NYSE:UPS PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
PE Ratio See PE Ratio Section 19.63x
Net Income Annual Growth Rate See Future Growth Section.
Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 23 Analysts
9%per year
United States of America Logistics Industry PEG Ratio Median Figure of 12 Publicly-Listed Logistics Companies 1.72x
United States of America Market PEG Ratio Median Figure of 2,119 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.57x

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

NYSE:UPS PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PEG Ratio

= PE Ratio ÷ Net Income Annual Growth Rate

= 19.63x ÷ 9%

2.18x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • United Parcel Service is poor value based on expected growth next year.
Price based on value of assets
What value do investors place on United Parcel Service's assets?
Raw Data
NYSE:UPS PB (Price to Book) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Book Value per Share Company Filings (2019-03-31) in USD $4.03
NYSE:UPS Share Price * NYSE (2019-07-19) in USD $103.31
United States of America Logistics Industry PB Ratio Median Figure of 16 Publicly-Listed Logistics Companies 2.76x
United States of America Market PB Ratio Median Figure of 5,245 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.79x
NYSE:UPS PB (Price to Book) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PB Ratio

= NYSE:UPS Share Price ÷ Book Value per Share (both in USD)

= 103.31 ÷ 4.03

25.66x

* Primary Listing of United Parcel Service.

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • United Parcel Service is overvalued based on assets compared to the US Logistics industry average.
X
Value checks
We assess United Parcel Service's value by looking at:
  1. Is the discounted cash flow value less than 20%, or 40% of the share price? (2 checks) ( Click here or on bar chart for details of DCF calculation. )
  2. Is the PE ratio less than the market average, and/ or less than the Logistics industry average (and greater than 0)? (2 checks)
  3. Is the PEG ratio within a reasonable range (0 to 1)? (1 check)
  4. Is the PB ratio less than the Logistics industry average (and greater than 0)? (1 check)
  5. United Parcel Service has a total score of 0/6, see the detailed checks below.

    Note: We use GAAP Earnings per Share in all our calculations including PE and PEG Ratio.

    Full details on the Value part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Future Performance

 How is United Parcel Service expected to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 23 analysts?

The future performance of a company is measured in the same way as past performance, by looking at estimated growth and how much profit it is expected to make.

Future estimates come from professional analysts. Just like forecasting the weather, they don’t always get it right!
Annual Growth Rate
9%
Expected annual growth in earnings.
Earnings growth vs Low Risk Savings
Is United Parcel Service expected to grow at an attractive rate?
  • United Parcel Service's earnings growth is expected to exceed the low risk savings rate of 2.7%.
Growth vs Market Checks
  • United Parcel Service's earnings growth is positive but not above the United States of America market average.
  • United Parcel Service's revenue growth is positive but not above the United States of America market average.
Annual Growth Rates Comparison
Raw Data
NYSE:UPS Future Growth Rates Data Sources
Data Point Source Value (per year)
NYSE:UPS Future Earnings Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 23 Analysts 9%
NYSE:UPS Future Revenue Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Revenue of 23 Analysts 4.7%
United States of America Logistics Industry Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 15.3%
United States of America Logistics Industry Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 6.3%
United States of America Market Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 13.9%
United States of America Market Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 7.4%

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Learn more about our growth rate calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model.

Analysts growth expectations
Raw Data
NYSE:UPS Analysts Growth Expectations Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (3 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 23 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
All numbers in USD Millions and using Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.
NYSE:UPS Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income * Avg. No. Analysts
2023-12-31 90,141 13,802 8,661 2
2022-12-31 86,439 12,880 7,966 3
2021-12-31 81,925 12,071 7,584 8
2020-12-31 78,364 10,842 6,998 22
2019-12-31 74,621 10,465 6,408 23
NYSE:UPS Past Financials Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income *
2019-03-31 71,908 10,921 4,557
2018-12-31 71,861 12,711 4,791
2018-09-30 70,988 6,483 5,434
2018-06-30 69,717 6,058 5,185
2018-03-31 68,188 5,307 5,084
2017-12-31 66,585 1,479 4,905
2017-09-30 64,541 5,528 3,570
2017-06-30 63,296 4,401 3,581
2017-03-31 61,998 4,042 3,466
2016-12-31 61,610 6,473 3,422
2016-09-30 60,029 6,378 5,001
2016-06-30 59,338 7,884 4,988

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Super high growth metrics
High Growth Checks
  • United Parcel Service's earnings are expected to grow by 9% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
  • United Parcel Service's revenue is expected to grow by 4.7% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Raw Data
NYSE:UPS Past and Future Earnings per Share
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (3 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 23 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below

All data from United Parcel Service Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

NYSE:UPS Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) EPS * EPS High Estimate EPS Low Estimate Avg. No. Analysts
2023-12-31 10.52 10.52 10.52 1.00
2022-12-31 9.68 9.68 9.68 1.00
2021-12-31 8.90 9.25 8.65 5.00
2020-12-31 8.11 8.45 7.80 16.00
2019-12-31 7.37 7.60 7.06 15.00
NYSE:UPS Past Financials Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) EPS *
2019-03-31 5.26
2018-12-31 5.53
2018-09-30 6.27
2018-06-30 5.98
2018-03-31 5.85
2017-12-31 5.63
2017-09-30 4.09
2017-06-30 4.09
2017-03-31 3.94
2016-12-31 3.88
2016-09-30 5.63
2016-06-30 5.59

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance in 3 years
In the same way as past performance we look at the future estimated return (profit) compared to the available funds. We do this looking forward 3 years.
  • United Parcel Service is expected to make outstanding use of shareholders’ funds in the future (Return on Equity greater than 40%).
X
Future performance checks
We assess United Parcel Service's future performance by looking at:
  1. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the low risk savings rate, plus a premium to keep pace with inflation?
  2. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in earnings of the United States of America market? (1 check)
  3. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in revenue of the United States of America market? (1 check)
  4. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  6. Is the Return on Equity in 3 years expected to be over 20%? (1 check)
Some of the above checks will fail if the company is expected to be loss making in the relevant year.
United Parcel Service has a total score of 2/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note 1: We use GAAP Net Income Excluding Exceptional Items for our Earnings in all our calculations.

Full details on the Future part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Past Performance

  How has United Parcel Service performed over the past 5 years?

The past performance of a company can be measured by how much growth it has experienced and how much profit it makes relative to the funds and assets it has available.
Past earnings growth
Below we compare United Parcel Service's growth in the last year to its industry (Logistics).
Past Earnings growth analysis
We also check if the company has grown in the past 5 years, and whether it has maintained that growth in the year.
  • United Parcel Service's year on year earnings growth rate has been positive over the past 5 years.
  • United Parcel Service's 1-year earnings growth is negative, it can't be compared to the 5-year average.
  • United Parcel Service's 1-year earnings growth is negative, it can't be compared to the US Logistics industry average.
Earnings and Revenue History
United Parcel Service's revenue and profit over the past 5 years is shown below, any years where they have experienced a loss will show up in red.
Raw Data

All data from United Parcel Service Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

NYSE:UPS Past Revenue, Cash Flow and Net Income Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Net Income * G+A Expenses R&D Expenses
2019-03-31 71,908.00 4,557.00
2018-12-31 71,861.00 4,791.00
2018-09-30 70,988.00 5,434.00
2018-06-30 69,717.00 5,185.00
2018-03-31 68,188.00 5,084.00
2017-12-31 66,585.00 4,905.00
2017-09-30 64,541.00 3,570.00
2017-06-30 63,296.00 3,581.00
2017-03-31 61,998.00 3,466.00
2016-12-31 61,610.00 3,422.00
2016-09-30 60,029.00 5,001.00
2016-06-30 59,338.00 4,988.00
2016-03-31 58,804.00 4,949.00
2015-12-31 58,363.00 4,844.00
2015-09-30 58,204.00 3,966.00
2015-06-30 58,257.00 3,923.00
2015-03-31 58,430.00 3,147.00
2014-12-31 58,232.00 3,032.00
2014-09-30 57,313.00 3,746.00
2014-06-30 56,544.00 3,629.00
2014-03-31 55,783.00 4,246.00
2013-12-31 55,438.00 4,372.00
2013-09-30 55,033.00 1,457.00
2013-06-30 54,583.00 829.00
2013-03-31 54,425.00 874.00
2012-12-31 54,127.00 807.00
2012-09-30 53,722.00 3,280.00

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance last year
We want to ensure a company is making the most of what it has available. This is done by comparing the return (profit) to a company's available funds, assets and capital.
  • Whilst United Parcel Service made outstanding use of shareholders’ funds last year (Return on Equity greater than 40%), this is metric is skewed due to its high level of debt.
  • United Parcel Service used its assets more efficiently than the US Logistics industry average last year based on Return on Assets.
  • United Parcel Service's use of capital deteriorated last year versus 3 years ago (Return on Capital Employed).
X
Past performance checks
We assess United Parcel Service's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
  1. Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
  2. Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the Logistics industry? (1 check)
  3. Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
  6. Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
United Parcel Service has a total score of 2/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.

Full details on the Past part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Health

 How is United Parcel Service's financial health and their level of debt?

A company's financial position is much like your own financial position, it includes everything you own (assets) and owe (liabilities).

The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up United Parcel Service's finances.

The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
Net Worth
  • United Parcel Service is able to meet its short term (1 year) commitments with its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
  • United Parcel Service's long term commitments exceed its cash and other short term assets.
Balance sheet
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of United Parcel Service's finances. If any of them are yellow this indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the checks below.
Assets
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
  • High level of physical assets or inventory.
  • Debt is not covered by short term assets, assets are 0.6x debt.
Historical Debt
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t bad, however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest on its debts this may have impacts in the future.

The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to see the red area (debt) decreasing.

If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Raw Data

All data from United Parcel Service Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago.

NYSE:UPS Past Debt and Equity Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Total Equity Total Debt Cash & Short Term Investments
2019-03-31 3,485.00 22,667.00 5,111.00
2018-12-31 3,037.00 22,243.00 5,036.00
2018-09-30 3,126.00 23,366.00 4,845.00
2018-06-30 2,356.00 22,771.00 4,940.00
2018-03-31 1,375.00 23,143.00 4,209.00
2017-12-31 1,024.00 24,317.00 4,070.00
2017-09-30 1,539.00 18,933.00 4,465.00
2017-06-30 1,274.00 18,099.00 4,611.00
2017-03-31 560.00 17,269.00 3,729.00
2016-12-31 429.00 16,104.00 4,567.00
2016-09-30 2,767.00 15,372.00 5,358.00
2016-06-30 2,650.00 14,419.00 5,672.00
2016-03-31 2,480.00 15,485.00 6,267.00
2015-12-31 2,491.00 14,366.00 4,726.00
2015-09-30 1,948.00 14,639.00 5,689.00
2015-06-30 1,968.00 13,194.00 6,222.00
2015-03-31 1,847.00 13,138.00 6,417.00
2014-12-31 2,158.00 10,822.00 3,283.00
2014-09-30 5,644.00 12,312.00 5,571.00
2014-06-30 5,585.00 11,899.00 4,599.00
2014-03-31 6,262.00 12,161.00 7,035.00
2013-12-31 6,488.00 10,980.00 5,252.00
2013-09-30 3,655.00 12,680.00 6,664.00
2013-06-30 3,630.00 12,007.00 6,213.00
2013-03-31 4,043.00 12,718.00 7,332.00
2012-12-31 4,733.00 12,925.00 7,925.00
2012-09-30 7,614.00 15,068.00 9,026.00
  • United Parcel Service's level of debt (665.5%) compared to net worth is high (greater than 40%).
  • The level of debt compared to net worth has increased over the past 5 years (194.4% vs 665.5% today).
  • Debt is well covered by operating cash flow (47.1%, greater than 20% of total debt).
  • United Parcel Service earns more interest than it pays, coverage of interest payments is not a concern.
X
Financial health checks
We assess United Parcel Service's financial health by checking for:
  1. Are short term assets greater than short term liabilities? (1 check)
  2. Are short term assets greater than long term liabilities? (1 check)
  3. Has the debt to equity ratio increased in the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the debt to equity ratio over 40%? (1 check)
  5. Is the debt covered by operating cash flow? (1 check)
  6. Are earnings greater than 5x the interest on debt (if company pays interest at all)? (1 check)
  7. United Parcel Service has a total score of 3/6, see the detailed checks below.
For companies that are loss making and have been so on average in the past we replace the last 2 checks with:
  1. Does cash and short term investments cover stable operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)
  2. Does cash and short term investments cover growing operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)


Full details on the Health part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Dividends

 What is United Parcel Service's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividends are regular cash payments to you from the company, similar to a bank paying you interest on a savings account.
Annual Dividend Income
Dividend payments
3.72%
Current annual income from United Parcel Service dividends. Estimated to be 3.99% next year.
If you bought $2,000 of United Parcel Service shares you are expected to receive $74 in your first year as a dividend.
Dividend Amount
Here we look how much dividend is being paid, if any. Is it above what you can get in a savings account? It is up there with the best dividend paying companies?
  • United Parcel Service's pays a higher dividend yield than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in United States of America (1.44%).
  • United Parcel Service's dividend is below the markets top 25% of dividend payers in United States of America (3.76%).
Annualized Historical and Future Dividends
It is important to see if the dividend for a company is stable, and not wildly increasing/decreasing each year. This graph shows you the historical rate to count toward your assessment of the stock.

We also check to see if the dividend has increased in the past 10 years.
Raw Data
NYSE:UPS Annualized Past and Future Dividends
Data Point Source Value
Past Annualized Dividend Yield S&P Global Market Data See Below
Past Dividends per Share Company Filings/ Annualized Dividend Payments See Below
Future Dividends per Share Estimates Average of up to 23 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
United States of America Logistics Industry Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 6 Stocks 2.7%
United States of America Market Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 2016 Stocks 2.4%
United States of America Minimum Threshold Dividend Yield 10th Percentile 0.8%
United States of America Bottom 25% Dividend Yield 25th Percentile 1.4%
United States of America Top 25% Dividend Yield 75th Percentile 3.8%

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Note all dividend per share amounts are annualized and not quarterly or other period.

NYSE:UPS Future Dividends Estimate Data
Date (Data in $) Dividend per Share (annual) Avg. No. Analysts
2023-12-31 5.36 2.00
2022-12-31 4.92 2.00
2021-12-31 4.36 9.00
2020-12-31 4.07 18.00
2019-12-31 3.83 18.00
NYSE:UPS Past Annualized Dividends Data
Date (Data in $) Dividend per share (annual) Avg. Yield (%)
2019-05-09 3.840 3.832
2019-02-15 3.840 3.496
2018-11-08 3.640 3.520
2018-08-09 3.640 3.110
2018-05-10 3.640 3.187
2018-02-08 3.640 3.377
2017-11-02 3.320 2.757
2017-08-03 3.320 2.853
2017-05-04 3.320 3.057
2017-02-08 3.320 3.118
2016-11-03 3.120 2.732
2016-08-05 3.120 2.869
2016-05-05 3.120 2.953
2016-02-10 3.120 3.051
2015-11-05 2.920 2.993
2015-08-06 2.920 2.898
2015-05-07 2.920 2.936
2015-02-11 2.920 2.942
2014-11-06 2.680 2.491
2014-08-07 2.680 2.718
2014-05-08 2.680 2.630
2014-02-13 2.680 2.754
2013-11-07 2.480 2.476
2013-08-08 2.480 2.741
2013-05-02 2.480 2.848
2013-02-14 2.480 2.952
2012-11-08 2.280 3.000
2012-08-09 2.280 3.097
2012-05-03 2.280 2.976
2012-02-09 2.280 2.907
2011-11-03 2.080 2.867
2011-08-11 2.080 3.148
2011-05-05 2.080 2.921
2011-02-03 2.080 2.827
2010-11-04 1.880 2.631
2010-08-05 1.880 2.807
2010-05-06 1.880 3.024
2010-02-04 1.880 3.003
2009-11-05 1.800 3.084
2009-08-13 1.800 3.244
2009-05-07 1.800 3.506
2009-02-11 1.800 3.805
2008-11-06 1.800 3.525
2008-08-14 1.800 3.064

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.
  • Dividends per share have increased over the past 10 years.
Current Payout to shareholders
What portion of United Parcel Service's earnings are paid to the shareholders as a dividend.
  • Dividends paid are covered by earnings (1.4x coverage).
Future Payout to shareholders
  • Dividends after 3 years are expected to be well covered by earnings (2x coverage).
X
Income/ dividend checks
We assess United Parcel Service's dividend by checking for:
  1. Firstly is the company paying a notable dividend (greater than 0.8%) - if not then the rest of the checks are ignored.
  2. Is current dividend yield above the bottom 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  3. Is current dividend yield above the top 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  4. Have they paid a dividend for 10 years, and during this period has the dividend been volatile (drop of more than 25%)? (1 check)
  5. If they have paid a dividend for 10 years has it increased in this time? (1 check)
  6. How sustainable is the dividend, can United Parcel Service afford to pay it from its earnings today and in 3 years (Payout ratio less than 90%)? (2 checks)
  7. United Parcel Service has a total score of 5/6, see the detailed checks below.


Full details on the Dividends part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Management

 What is the CEO of United Parcel Service's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have been around for and insider trading.
CEO
David Abney
COMPENSATION $15,060,876
AGE 64
TENURE AS CEO 4.8 years
CEO Bio

Mr. David P. Abney has been a Member of Board of Directors at Macy’s, Inc since October 25, 2018. Mr. Abney has been the Chief Executive Officer of United Parcel Service, Inc. and United Parcel Service of America, Inc. since September 1, 2014. Mr. Abney serves as the Chief Executive Officer of UPS Supply Chain Solutions, Inc. He served as the Chief Operating Officer of United Parcel Service of America, Inc. and United Parcel Service, Inc. from January 8, 2007 to September 1, 2014. Mr. Abney served as the Chief Operating Officer of UPS International at UPS Airlines since January 8, 2007 until 2014. He served as Senior Vice President of United Parcel Service, Inc. He served as Senior Vice President of Global Transportation Services at United Parcel Service, Inc. He served as the President of Airlines at United Parcel Service, Inc. from 2007 to 2008. He served as the President of UPS International, Inc. from 2003 to January 8, 2007. He served as the President of International Operations at UPS Supply Chain Solutions Inc. He served as the President of UPS International Inc., from 2003 to January 8, 2007 and as UPS/Fritz Companies Integration Manager from 2001 to 2002. His international experience includes leading the logistics and freight divisions in Canada and Latin America as well as heading global freight forwarding and customs brokerage. He began his career with UPS Airlines in 1974, served as a part-time package loader and in various positions of increasing responsibility. He served as the President of SonicAir. He served as Senior Vice President of United Parcel Service, Inc., since 2003. He has worked in U.S. package operations and directed freight and logistics operations in the U.S., Canada and Latin America at UPS Airlines. He has been the Chairman of United Parcel Service, Inc. since February 10, 2016. He has been the Chairman of United Parcel Service of America, Inc. since June 2016. He has been a Non-Independent Director of United Parcel Service, Inc. since September 1, 2014. Mr. Abney serves as a Director of Engage Ventures, LLC. He served as an Independent Director of Johnson Controls International plc from September 6, 2016 to March 7, 2018. Mr. Abney serves as a Director of Allied Waste Inc. He serves on the Board of Directors of the Air Couriers Conference of America. He serves as a Board Member of the Southern Center for International Studies, the Coalition of Service Industries and Cargo Network Services, a subsidiary of the International Air Transport Association. He serves as a Trustee of the UPS Foundation, a Trustee of the Annie E. Casey Foundation and is a member of the World Affairs Council. He served as an Independent Director of Johnson Controls Inc., since September 2009 until September 6, 2016. He served as an Independent Director of Allied Waste Industries, Inc. since April 7, 2008. Abney serves on the board of Catalyst, an organization working to accelerate and advance women, including women of color, into senior leadership and board positions, and was elected as the 2019 Chairman of the Metro Atlanta Chamber of Commerce. He was honored with the Professionalism in Services/Support Management Award by the International Association of Services Management for demonstrating exemplary managerial characteristics. Mr. Abney holds a Bachelor's degree in Business Administration from Delta State University.

CEO Compensation
  • David's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year, both up more than 20%.
  • David's remuneration is higher than average for companies of similar size in United States of America.
Management Team Tenure

Average tenure and age of the United Parcel Service management team in years:

3.4
Average Tenure
56
Average Age
  • The tenure for the United Parcel Service management team is about average.
Management Team

David Abney

TITLE
Chairman & CEO
COMPENSATION
$15M
AGE
64
TENURE
4.8 yrs

Jim Barber

TITLE
Senior VP
COMPENSATION
$7M
AGE
59

Rich Peretz

TITLE
Senior VP
COMPENSATION
$5M
AGE
57
TENURE
4 yrs

Kevin Warren

TITLE
Senior VP & Chief Marketing Officer
COMPENSATION
$5M
AGE
56
TENURE
1.1 yrs

Scott Price

TITLE
Senior VP and Chief Strategy & Transformation Officer
COMPENSATION
$8M
AGE
56
TENURE
1.3 yrs

Juan Perez

TITLE
Senior VP and Chief Information & Engineering Officer
AGE
52
TENURE
2.3 yrs

Scott Childress

TITLE
VP & Investor Relations Officer
TENURE
3.3 yrs

Norm Brothers

TITLE
Senior VP
AGE
51
TENURE
3.5 yrs

Kate Gutmann

TITLE
Senior VP and Chief Sales & Solutions Officer
AGE
50
TENURE
5.5 yrs

Charlene Thomas

TITLE
President of West Region & Chief Human Resources Officer
Board of Directors Tenure

Average tenure and age of the United Parcel Service board of directors in years:

8
Average Tenure
63
Average Age
  • The tenure for the United Parcel Service board of directors is about average.
Board of Directors

David Abney

TITLE
Chairman & CEO
COMPENSATION
$15M
AGE
64
TENURE
3.4 yrs

Ann Livermore

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$295K
AGE
60
TENURE
22.5 yrs

Carol Tomé

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$300K
AGE
62
TENURE
16.5 yrs

Bill Johnson

TITLE
Lead Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$320K
AGE
70
TENURE
3.4 yrs

Rod Adkins

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$295K
AGE
60
TENURE
6.5 yrs

Mike Burns

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$275K
AGE
67
TENURE
13.9 yrs

Rudy Markham

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$275K
AGE
73
TENURE
11.7 yrs

Sandy Randt

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$275K
AGE
73
TENURE
8.9 yrs

Kevin Warsh

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$275K
AGE
49
TENURE
7 yrs

John Stankey

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$275K
AGE
56
TENURE
4.9 yrs
Who owns this company?
Recent Insider Trading
  • No 3 month individual insider trading information.
Recent Insider Transactions
Announced Type Name Entity Role Start End Shares Max Price ($) Value ($)
24. Aug 18 Sell George Willis Individual 23. Aug 18 23. Aug 18 -4,312 $121.34 $-523,218
X
Management checks
We assess United Parcel Service's management by checking for:
  1. Is the CEO's compensation unreasonable compared to market cap? (1 check)
  2. Has the CEO's compensation increased more than 20% whilst the EPS is down more then 20%? (1 check)
  3. Is the average tenure of the management team less than 2 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the average tenure of the board of directors team less than 3 years? (1 check)
  5. United Parcel Service has a total score of 0/6, this is not included on the snowflake, see the detailed checks below.


Note: We use the top 6 management executives and board members in our calculations.

Note 2: Insider trading include any internal stakeholders and these transactions .

Full details on the Management part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

News

Simply Wall St News

United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS) Has A Somewhat Strained Balance Sheet

NYSE:UPS Historical Debt, July 12th 2019 How Strong Is United Parcel Service's Balance Sheet? … Looking at the most recent three years, United Parcel Service recorded free cash flow of 27% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. … Our View United Parcel Service's EBIT growth rate and conversion of EBIT to free cash flow definitely weigh on it, in our esteem.

Simply Wall St -

Could United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE:UPS) Have The Makings Of Another Dividend Aristocrat?

(NYSE:UPS) be an attractive dividend share to own for the long haul? Investors are often drawn to strong companies with the idea of reinvesting the dividends. Unfortunately, it's common for investors to be enticed in by the seemingly attractive yield, and lose money when the company has to cut its dividend payments. In this case, United Parcel Service likely looks attractive to investors, given its 3.7% dividend yield and a payment history of over ten years. We'd guess that plenty of investors have purchased it for the income. The company also bought back stock during the year, equivalent to approximately 0.9% of the company's market capitalisation at the time. Before you buy any stock for its dividend however, you should always remember Warren Buffett's two rules: 1) Don't lose money, and 2) Remember rule #1. … Conclusion To summarise, shareholders should always check that United Parcel Service's dividends are affordable, that its dividend payments are relatively stable, and that it has decent prospects for growing its earnings and dividend. … See if the 23 United Parcel Service analysts we track are forecasting continued growth with our free report on analyst estimates for the company.

Simply Wall St -

Do Directors Own United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE:UPS) Shares?

View our latest analysis for United Parcel Service NYSE:UPS Ownership Summary, June 17th 2019 What Does The Institutional Ownership Tell Us About United Parcel Service? … As you can see, institutional investors own 58% of United Parcel Service. … Insider Ownership Of United Parcel Service The definition of company insiders can be subjective, and does vary between jurisdictions.

Simply Wall St -

Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE:UPS)

(NYSE:UPS) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. … Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value: 10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Levered FCF ($, Millions) $4.02k $4.25k $5.55k $5.82k $6.47k $7.00k $7.46k $7.87k $8.23k $8.57k Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x9 Analyst x8 Analyst x3 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ 8.26% Est @ 6.6% Est @ 5.44% Est @ 4.63% Est @ 4.06% Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 9.42% $3.67k $3.55k $4.23k $4.06k $4.12k $4.08k $3.97k $3.83k $3.66k $3.48k Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= $38.66b "Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. … Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$8.6b × (1 + 2.7%) ÷ (9.4% – 2.7%) = US$131b Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)10 = $US$131b ÷ ( 1 + 9.4%)10 = $53.41b The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is $92.06b.

Simply Wall St -

United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE:UPS): Is It A Smart Long Term Opportunity?

In this article, I've outline a few earnings growth rates to give you a sense of the market sentiment for United Parcel Service in the longer term. … Check out our latest analysis for United Parcel Service How is United Parcel Service going to perform in the near future? … NYSE:UPS Past and Future Earnings, May 18th 2019 This results in an annual growth rate of 9.5% based on the most recent earnings level of US$4.8b to the final forecast of US$8.2b by 2022.

Simply Wall St -

What Is United Parcel Service, Inc.'s (NYSE:UPS) Share Price Doing?

Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price? … A question to answer is whether United Parcel Service's current trading price of $104.62 reflective of the actual value of the? … Let’s take a look at United Parcel Service’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change

Simply Wall St -

What Can We Make Of United Parcel Service, Inc.’s (NYSE:UPS) High Return On Capital?

Specifically, we'll consider its Return On Capital Employed (ROCE), since that will give us an insight into how efficiently the business can generate profits from the capital it requires. … What is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)? … ROCE measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business.

Simply Wall St -

Is United Parcel Service, Inc.'s (NYSE:UPS) CEO Overpaid Relative To Its Peers?

This report will, first, examine the CEO compensation levels in comparison to CEO compensation at other big companies. … How Does David Abney's Compensation Compare With Similar Sized Companies. … has a market capitalization of US$98b, and pays its CEO total annual compensation worth US$15m.

Simply Wall St -

What Do Analysts Think About The Future Of United Parcel Service, Inc.'s (NYSE:UPS)?

United Parcel Service, Inc.'s (NYSE:UPS) most recent earnings announcement in December 2018a

Simply Wall St -

Update: United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS) Stock Gained 11% In The Last Five Years

(NYSE:UPS) share price is up 11% in the last five years, that's less than the market return. … During five years of share price growth, United Parcel Service achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 3.5% per year. … This EPS growth is higher than the 2.2% average annual increase in the share price.

Simply Wall St -

Company Info

Description

United Parcel Service, Inc. provides letter and package delivery, specialized transportation, logistics, and financial services. It operates through three segments: U.S. Domestic Package, International Package, and Supply Chain & Freight. The U.S. Domestic Package segment offers time-definite delivery of letters, documents, small packages, and palletized freight through air and ground services in the United States. The International Package segment provides guaranteed day and time-definite international shipping services in Europe, the Asia Pacific, Canada and Latin America, the Indian sub-continent, the Middle East, and Africa. This segment offers guaranteed time-definite express options, including Express Plus, Express, and Express Saver. The Supply Chain & Freight segment provides international air and ocean freight forwarding, customs brokerage, distribution and post-sales, and mail and consulting services in approximately 220 countries and territories; and less-than-truckload and truckload services to customers in North America. This segment also offers shipping, visibility, and billing technologies; and insurance, financing, and payment services. The company operates a fleet of approximately 123,000 package cars, vans, tractors, and motorcycles; and owns 47,000 containers that are used to transport cargo in its aircraft. United Parcel Service, Inc. was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

Details
Name: United Parcel Service, Inc.
UPS
Exchange: NYSE
Founded: 1907
$88,924,663,515
860,755,624
Website: http://www.ups.com
Address: United Parcel Service, Inc.
55 Glenlake Parkway, N.E.,
Atlanta,
Georgia, 30328,
United States
Listings
Exchange Symbol Ticker Symbol Security Exchange Country Currency Listed on
NYSE UPS Class B Common Stock New York Stock Exchange US USD 10. Nov 1999
DB UPAB Class B Common Stock Deutsche Boerse AG DE EUR 10. Nov 1999
LSE 0R08 Class B Common Stock London Stock Exchange GB USD 10. Nov 1999
SWX UPS Class B Common Stock SIX Swiss Exchange CH CHF 10. Nov 1999
WBAG UPSI Class B Common Stock Wiener Boerse AG AT EUR 10. Nov 1999
SNSE UPS Class B Common Stock Santiago Stock Exchange CL USD 10. Nov 1999
BMV UPS * Class B Common Stock Bolsa Mexicana de Valores MX MXN 10. Nov 1999
BOVESPA UPSS34 BDR EACH REPR 0.25 COM 'B' USD0.01 Bolsa de Valores de Sao Paulo BR BRL 24. Aug 2012
Number of employees
Current staff
Staff numbers
364,575
United Parcel Service employees.
Industry
Air Freight and Logistics
Transportation
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
Area Date (UTC time)
Company Analysis updated: 2019/07/20 23:54
End of day share price update: 2019/07/19 00:00
Last estimates confirmation: 2019/07/16
Last earnings filing: 2019/04/30
Last earnings reported: 2019/03/31
Last annual earnings reported: 2018/12/31


All dates and times in UTC. All financial data provided by Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.