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UPS

United Parcel Service NYSE:UPS Stock Report

Last Price

US$205.88

Market Cap

US$178.0b

7D

5.0%

1Y

4.5%

Updated

15 Aug, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
UPS fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation4/6
Future Growth2/6
Past Performance5/6
Financial Health4/6
Dividends5/6

UPS Stock Overview

United Parcel Service, Inc. provides letter and package delivery, transportation, logistics, and related services.

United Parcel Service, Inc. Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for United Parcel Service
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$205.88
52 Week HighUS$233.72
52 Week LowUS$165.34
Beta1.08
1 Month Change12.76%
3 Month Change12.42%
1 Year Change4.47%
3 Year Change76.28%
5 Year Change80.87%
Change since IPO202.21%

Recent News & Updates

Aug 11

UPS: Signed, Sealed, Delivered

UPS has benefited from the pandemic and is holding up well, with e-commerce volumes under pressure. The company has done quite well in recent years on the back of the secular growth trends, having reduced leverage a lot as well. A 15-16 times earnings multiple looks fair given the many moving developments, some of which have the potential to impact the business quite a bit. Shares of United Parcel Service (UPS) have come to life a bit again despite challenges imposed by lower e-commerce volumes as of late, labor shortages, higher fuel costs, and other items. In the week in which the company announced its expansion of its Italian activities, it is time to review the investment case of UPS. It was all the way back in 2015 when I last had a look at UPS, at the time concluding that the situation was not compelling enough given the future risks. I noted that the company was well positioned to benefit from continued growth in e-commerce, as I was a bit cautious given the premium valuation and potential for stiff competition. As it turned out, shares have doubled from $100 to $200 in a 7-year time frame, as the performance has been largely in line with the S&P 500, in fact, that its performance has lagged the major index a bit. Former Take Back in 2015, UPS already focused on the delivery of packages, LTL shipments and supply chain management solutions, something still the case today. Letter volumes were of course under pressure, with package volumes up, driven by the relentless rise of e-commerce, although large retailers like Walmart (WMT) and Amazon.com (AMZN) were investing heavily into own delivery infrastructure, having the potential to cut out large parts of the volume for essentially a middle man. The company generated some $58 billion in sales at the time, with operating margins of 13-14% looking quite resilient. The company set ambitious long-term targets, implicitly calling for sales of $68 billion by 2019 with after-tax earnings seen at $6.5 billion, translating into earnings of $8-$9 per share. With shares trading at 12 times forward earnings (about 4-5 years in time) I believed the valuation was full, given the solid positioning which invited some competition as well (even competition by its own clients). With UPS at the time trading at 20 times earnings, amidst a leverage position of roughly 1 times, I noted that post-retirement obligations of $12 billion would increase leverage to roughly 2.5 times, as that valuation was full enough for me. Caution Saves The Day Having taken a cautious stance at $100 in 2015, I noted that shares have been trading around the $100 mark pretty much until the start of the pandemic early in 2020. Shares rallied to a high in the $230s following the boom, sold off to $170 recently, to now trade at $205 per share again. In February of this year, UPS posted its 2021 results with full year revenues up a decent 15% to $97 billion and change, as the company lived up to its long-term promises. Operating profits were essentially up 50% to $13 billion, with adjusted numbers pretty much in line with the GAAP numbers. Adjusted earnings came in at $12.13 per share. Net debt was reported around $11.3 billion, including some $9 billion in pension-related liabilities. Nonetheless, with EBITDA trending around $16 billion, leverage ratios are quite manageable, supporting quite a bit of debt. Even as capital spending on equipment fell to $4.2 billion last year, it still exceeded depreciation charges by more than a billion, as cash flow conversion is always a challenge, certainly given the electrification challenge. The company guided for 2023 revenues to break through the $100 billion mark, seen around $102 billion, as operating margins are seen around 13.7%, indicating a $14 billion operating profit expectation. In April, the company posted first quarter results which were in line with expectations, as the company reiterated the full year guidance while reconfirming a >$6 dividend per share on an annual basis. With the second quarter results coming in a bit soft, the company reiterated the full year guidance. This makes that a roughly $13 earnings per share number come in at 15-16 times earnings, a reasonable multiple albeit that these are good times in the cycle. By the second quarter, net debt is down to $8.5 billion (excluding other liabilities). The 877 million shares value equity at $180 billion here, for a $188 billion enterprise valuation, equal to about 1.8 times sales.

Aug 04

UPS declares $1.52 dividend

UPS (NYSE:UPS) declares $1.52/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous. Forward yield 3.14% Payable Sept. 1; for shareholders of record Aug. 15; ex-div Aug. 12. See UPS Dividend Scorecard, Yield Chart, & Dividend Growth.

Shareholder Returns

UPSUS LogisticsUS Market
7D5.0%4.1%3.6%
1Y4.5%-1.8%-9.6%

Return vs Industry: UPS exceeded the US Logistics industry which returned -1.5% over the past year.

Return vs Market: UPS exceeded the US Market which returned -10.2% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is UPS's price volatile compared to industry and market?
UPS volatility
UPS Average Weekly Movement3.9%
Logistics Industry Average Movement6.7%
Market Average Movement7.7%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market16.9%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market3.2%

Stable Share Price: UPS is less volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.

Volatility Over Time: UPS's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
1907400,945Carol Tomehttps://www.ups.com

United Parcel Service, Inc. provides letter and package delivery, transportation, logistics, and related services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package.

United Parcel Service, Inc. Fundamentals Summary

How do United Parcel Service's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
UPS fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$177.98b
Earnings (TTM)US$10.93b
Revenue (TTM)US$100.10b

16.4x

P/E Ratio

1.8x

P/S Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
UPS income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$100.10b
Cost of RevenueUS$75.56b
Gross ProfitUS$24.54b
Other ExpensesUS$13.61b
EarningsUS$10.93b

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Oct 25, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)12.59
Gross Margin24.52%
Net Profit Margin10.92%
Debt/Equity Ratio123.9%

How did UPS perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

3.0%

Current Dividend Yield

41%

Payout Ratio