Will UPS’s (UPS) New AmEx Partnership Shift Its Small-Business Strategy Amid Trade Fee Changes?

• UPS and American Express recently announced an expanded agreement to support small and medium-sized businesses, launching exclusive shipping discounts for American Express business cardholders across UPS air, ground, and international options through early 2026.
• This collaboration marks UPS’s effort to strengthen its presence among profitable small-business shippers while attempting to offset headwinds created by new global trade fee structures.
• We’ll explore how UPS’s attempt to attract more small and medium-sized business clients may influence its future profitability amid tariff changes.

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United Parcel Service Investment Narrative Recap

To believe in UPS as an investment, you need confidence that its shift toward higher-margin small business shipping and aggressive cost reduction can outweigh mounting risks from tougher global trade policies and declining Amazon parcel volumes. The new American Express partnership provides short-term support for this core strategy, but it does not resolve the most pressing risk facing UPS: the potential revenue drag from recent tariff changes and anticipated softness in international export volumes, especially during the critical peak shipping season.

Among recent announcements, the launch of UPS Ground Saver stands out for its relevance. This new shipping option, introduced in August 2025, targets customers seeking greater flexibility and lower-cost delivery, showing UPS’s effort to broaden its appeal just as it faces changing trade conditions. Ground Saver could help reinforce the company’s margin improvement goal in a period of international headwinds.

However, in contrast, investors should also be aware that rising regulatory and labor costs may complicate these cost-saving efforts, particularly...

Read the full narrative on United Parcel Service (it's free!)

United Parcel Service's outlook anticipates $94.5 billion in revenue and $7.1 billion in earnings by 2028. This scenario relies on a 1.5% annual revenue growth rate and a $1.4 billion increase in earnings from $5.7 billion today.

Uncover how United Parcel Service's forecasts yield a $104.40 fair value, a 24% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some analysts see even greater potential ahead for UPS, forecasting revenue to hit around US$96.7 billion and earnings of US$8.0 billion by 2028. If you’re interested in why these more optimistic forecasts exist, especially as the new SMB-focused initiatives roll out and cost pressures mount, consider how different assumptions can shape every investment view.

Explore 24 other fair value estimates on United Parcel Service - why the stock might be worth 9% less than the current price!

Build Your Own United Parcel Service Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your United Parcel Service research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free United Parcel Service research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate United Parcel Service's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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