Stock Analysis

Union Pacific (UNP): A Fresh Look at Valuation Following Recent Earnings Growth

Union Pacific (UNP) shares edged higher in recent trading as investors took a closer look at the company’s latest financial results. Revenue and net income both showed annual growth, sparking renewed interest in the stock’s momentum.

See our latest analysis for Union Pacific.

Union Pacific’s share price has gained ground in recent weeks, with a 4.3% return over the last seven days and a 5.7% return in the past month. This may hint at growing optimism following its earnings update. While short-term momentum appears to be building, its one-year total shareholder return is still negative, indicating the longer-term recovery has room to run.

If you’re interested in discovering more movers outside transportation, now is a great time to check out fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With Union Pacific trading at a moderate discount to analyst targets and recent fundamentals looking positive, investors may be wondering if this is a buying opportunity or if the market has already accounted for future growth.

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Most Popular Narrative: 11.4% Undervalued

Union Pacific’s most widely followed narrative suggests that the current fair value estimate is significantly above the recent closing price, implying notable upside if projections hold true. This presents an opportunity to examine what underpins analyst optimism amid recent industry noise.

Union Pacific is implementing multiple efficiency enhancements, such as energy management systems for locomotives and optimization tools, which are expected to improve operational efficiency and net margins. The company is expanding capacity with new infrastructure, such as facilities in Houston and Phoenix, which could support future growth and positively impact revenue.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what really fuels this premium valuation? Hint: analysts are focusing on business development in some high-growth areas and future financial dynamics that could reshape Union Pacific’s earnings profile. Interested in the assumptions driving the numbers? Read on to see what the narrative expects and what could surprise the market.

Result: Fair Value of $260.40 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent trade policy shifts or economic slowdowns could pressure key shipping volumes and margins. This may potentially undermine the current outlook for Union Pacific.

Find out about the key risks to this Union Pacific narrative.

Another View: Is the Market Missing Something?

Looking at Union Pacific through the lens of the market’s price-to-earnings ratio, a different picture emerges. The company’s ratio stands at 19.4x, which is higher than its peer group average of 17.5x but comfortably below the industry’s 26.7x. Compared to the fair ratio of 21.5x, there may still be upside. However, a premium to peers could mean investors expect faster growth or see less risk. Are these expectations realistic? Or does this increase the risk of disappointment if growth stalls?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

NYSE:UNP PE Ratio as at Nov 2025
NYSE:UNP PE Ratio as at Nov 2025

Build Your Own Union Pacific Narrative

Feel free to dig into the numbers and draw your own conclusions. Building your own perspective takes just a few minutes with our tools. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Union Pacific research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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About NYSE:UNP

Union Pacific

Through its subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company, operates in the railroad business in the United States.

Solid track record established dividend payer.

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