Safe Bulkers (NYSE:SB) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of SB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

SB ($3.81) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($22.34)

SB fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	5/6
Financial Health	4/6
Dividends	3/6

SB Stock Overview

Safe Bulkers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides marine drybulk transportation services.

Rewards

Trading at 82.9% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings have grown 73.1% per year over the past 5 years

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 6.1% per year for the next 3 years

Has a high level of debt

Unstable dividend track record

Safe Bulkers Competitors

Grindrod Shipping Holdings

NasdaqGS:GRIN

US$371.6m

Global Ship Lease

NYSE:GSL

US$737.8m

Diana Shipping

NYSE:DSX

US$443.7m

Genco Shipping & Trading

NYSE:GNK

US$745.8m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Safe Bulkers
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$3.81
52 Week High	US$5.44
52 Week Low	US$3.02
Beta	0.77
1 Month Change	17.59%
3 Month Change	-5.46%
1 Year Change	10.44%
3 Year Change	108.20%
5 Year Change	34.63%
Change since IPO	-79.84%

Shareholder Returns

	SB	US Shipping	US Market
7D	3.3%	5.1%	3.2%
1Y	10.4%	12.8%	-10.1%

Return vs Industry: SB underperformed the US Shipping industry which returned 13.8% over the past year.

Return vs Market: SB exceeded the US Market which returned -11.7% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is SB's price volatile compared to industry and market?
SB volatility
SB Average Weekly Movement	7.2%
Shipping Industry Average Movement	8.4%
Market Average Movement	7.7%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.9%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: SB is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 7% a week.

Volatility Over Time: SB's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2007	9	Polys Hajioannou	https://www.safebulkers.com

Safe Bulkers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides marine drybulk transportation services. It owns and operates drybulk vessels for transporting bulk cargoes primarily coal, grain, and iron ore. As of March 18, 2022, the company had a fleet of 40 drybulk vessels having an average age of 10.4 years; and an aggregate carrying capacity of 3,925,500 deadweight tons.

Safe Bulkers Fundamentals Summary

How do Safe Bulkers's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
SB fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$459.73m
Earnings (TTM)	US$196.81m
Revenue (TTM)	US$354.28m

2.3x

P/E Ratio

1.3x

P/S Ratio

Is SB overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
SB income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$354.28m
Cost of Revenue	US$81.44m
Gross Profit	US$272.84m
Other Expenses	US$76.03m
Earnings	US$196.81m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	1.63
Gross Margin	77.01%
Net Profit Margin	55.55%
Debt/Equity Ratio	60.0%

How did SB perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

5.2%

Current Dividend Yield

n/a

Payout Ratio

Does SB pay a reliable dividends?

See SB dividend history and benchmarks

When do you need to buy SB by to receive an upcoming dividend?
Safe Bulkers dividend dates
Ex Dividend Date	Aug 19 2022
Dividend Pay Date	Sep 01 2022
Days until Ex dividend	5 days
Days until Dividend pay date	18 days

Does SB pay a reliable dividends?

See SB dividend history and benchmarks

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is SB undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SB?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for SB. This is calculated by dividing SB's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is SB's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$459.73m

SB key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	2.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	3.1x
PEG Ratio	-0.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SB's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

SB PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for SB vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	3.1x
GRIN Grindrod Shipping Holdings	2.5x	-30.0%	US$371.6m
GSL Global Ship Lease	2.9x	3.5%	US$737.8m
DSX Diana Shipping	4x	-24.9%	US$443.7m
GNK Genco Shipping & Trading	3.1x	-10.1%	US$745.8m
SB Safe Bulkers	2.3x	-6.1%	US$459.7m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (2.3x) compared to the peer average (3.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SB's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Shipping Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (2.3x) compared to the US Shipping industry average (2.7x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SB's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SB PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	2.3x
Fair PE Ratio	6.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (2.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.7x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SB ($3.81) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($22.34)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SB is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Future Growth

How is Safe Bulkers forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-6.1%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: SB's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-6.1% per year).

Earnings vs Market: SB's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-6.1% per year).

High Growth Earnings: SB's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: SB's revenue (4.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: SB's revenue (4.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: SB's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (16.2%).

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Past Performance

How has Safe Bulkers performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

5/6

Past Performance Score 5/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

73.1%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: SB has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: SB's current net profit margins (55.6%) are higher than last year (21.3%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: SB has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 73.1% per year.

Accelerating Growth: SB's earnings growth over the past year (272.3%) exceeds its 5-year average (73.1% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: SB earnings growth over the past year (272.3%) underperformed the Shipping industry 368.6%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: SB's Return on Equity (29.3%) is considered high.

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Financial Health

How is Safe Bulkers's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: SB's short term assets ($152.0M) exceed its short term liabilities ($76.2M).

Long Term Liabilities: SB's short term assets ($152.0M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($414.3M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: SB's net debt to equity ratio (41.8%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: SB's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 102.5% to 60% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: SB's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (60.3%).

Interest Coverage: SB's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (22.4x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Safe Bulkers's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

3/6

Dividend Score 3/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

5.25%

Current Dividend Yield

Upcoming Dividend Payment

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: SB's dividend (5.25%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.49%).

High Dividend: SB's dividend (5.25%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: SB's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: SB's dividend payments have fallen over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its low cash payout ratio (16.4%), SB's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

14.6yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Polys Hajioannou (55 yo)

14.58yrs

Tenure

Mr. Polys Hajioannou has been the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Safe Bulkers, Inc. since 2008. Mr. Hajioannou serves at Safety Management Overseas S.A. He also serves at Alassia Steamship Co., Lt...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: SB's management team is seasoned and experienced (14.6 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: SB's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 14.6 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/12 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/12 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31