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KNX

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings NYSE:KNX Stock Report

Last Price

US$47.91

Market Cap

US$7.7b

7D

-0.2%

1Y

-8.0%

Updated

24 Sep, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
KNX fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation5/6
Future Growth0/6
Past Performance4/6
Financial Health4/6
Dividends4/6

KNX Stock Overview

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides truckload transportation services in the United States, Mexico, and Canada.

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$47.91
52 Week HighUS$62.29
52 Week LowUS$42.50
Beta1.26
1 Month Change-12.16%
3 Month Change1.79%
1 Year Change-8.01%
3 Year Change33.53%
5 Year Change15.31%
Change since IPO2,419.94%

Recent News & Updates

Sep 18

Credit Suisse 'Top of the Crop' list down to one name

The Credit Suisse list of best stocks surfaces just one name for September: Knight-Swift Transportation (NYSE:KNX). Credit Suisse Product Manager Andrew St. Pierre defines the "Top of the Crop" stocks as the "highest conviction combined with the least demanding market expectations." The "Top of the Crop" criteria are: "Highest conviction Outperform ideas where CS analysts' estimates and target prices are above consensus and consensus is not overly bullish." Credit Suisse's HOLT is a model aiming for objectivity in converting income and balance sheet information into cash flow return on investment. "Outperform ideas with least demanding market expectations. Market-implied CFROI is below forecast CFROI and historical median." Knight-Swift is the only stock that currently gets a top rating in both categories. "We believe KNX’s discounted valuation more than compensates for macro-risk, and we are encouraged by the recent bottom that seems to have formed in its valuation," analyst Ari Rosa wrote. "The company’s recent efforts to diversify into the more attractive LTL industry should provide some buffer against a possible downturn. KNX has the highest FCF yield among its peers and the best operating margins in the industry but has received no premium relative to other truckload carriers." The other above-consensus best names are: Chipotle (CMG), Monster Beverage (MNST), International Game Technology (IGT), Tech Resources (TECK.B:CA), Autodesk (ADSK) and T-Mobile (TMUS).

Sep 12
Here's Why We Think Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (NYSE:KNX) Might Deserve Your Attention Today

Here's Why We Think Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (NYSE:KNX) Might Deserve Your Attention Today

Investors are often guided by the idea of discovering 'the next big thing', even if that means buying 'story stocks...

Aug 29

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings: Still Attractive

Summary Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings has seen strong financial performance lately, with sales and profits climbing. Given current expectations, shares of the business do look cheap, plus management continues to reward shareholders with share buybacks. Even if performance weakens, the company still seems to be attractively priced. Whether you like it or not, we live in a globalized world today. Not only that, but we also have a materialistic world. The combination of these two things has led to a significant demand for the transportation of goods, commodities, and more. As a result, a number of players have developed in the space and, right now, some of them seem to be trading at fundamentally attractive levels. One player that investors should be paying attention to that is fairly valued compared to similar firms but looks attractively priced on an absolute basis, is Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (KNX). Recent fundamental performance from the company has been particularly robust and the near-term outlook for shareholders is positive. Management is also actively engaged in share buybacks in an effort to add value to shareholders. But in recent months, shares of the company have taken a step back. In all, the company does appear to offer nice upside, leading me to rate it a ‘buy’ at this time. The picture has gotten better… mostly Back in November of 2021, I wrote an article that took a bullish stance on Knight-Swift Transportation. In that article, I called the company a solid opportunity for trucking fans. I acknowledged that the company had experienced a rocky operating history over the prior few years but that the 2021 fiscal year was really looking up for shareholders. I ultimately concluded that shares looked attractive on an absolute basis and were no worse than being fairly valued relative to similar firms. And that led me to rate the enterprise a ‘buy’. Since then, things have not gone precisely as planned. However, the company has outperformed the broader market, with shares falling by 10.1% compared to the 12.8% decline experienced by the S&P 500. Author - SEC EDGAR Data Although this return disparity is not terribly significant, it is positive and it underscores the quality of the business. To see what I mean about quality, we need only look at recent financial performance reported by management. For starters, let's touch on how the company ended its 2021 fiscal year. For that year, revenue came in at just under $6 billion. That represented a 28.3% increase over the $4.67 billion generated in 2020. It was also the best single year in terms of revenue for the company throughout its entire history. Although the company did benefit from an 8.2% increase in revenue associated with its Truckload segment, the real driver of growth was a 117.4% rise in revenue associated with its Logistics segment. Revenue here jumped from $375.8 million to $817 million. This was driven by robust demand for the company's services, with the load count transported by the company climbing 51.5% while revenue per load grew by 44.4%. That growth for the company has continued into the 2022 fiscal year. Revenue in the first half of the year, for instance, came in strong at $3.79 billion. That's 49.2% higher than the $2.54 billion generated the same time last year. The company experienced a lot of strength across the spectrum. But once again, the Logistics segment for the firm did much of the heavy lifting, with revenue skyrocketing 85.8% from $285.6 million to $530.7 million. Robust demand allowed the business to generate revenue per load of $2,471. That's 18% above the $2,094 per load in revenue achieved the same time last year. Load count in this segment expanded by 60.9% despite the increase in pricing. Of course, as I mentioned already, other segments fared quite well. The Intermodal segment, for instance, saw revenue rise by 8.8%, while the Truckload segment reported a 16.4% rise even as total miles driven per tractor dropped by 8.1%. Author - SEC EDGAR Data The most important thing to remember about low-margin, asset-intensive businesses, is that a small positive impact in margin or a small increase in revenue relative to the size of the asset base, can be incredibly profitable for the business in question. Once again, the fundamentals tell the story. For the 2021 fiscal year, net income came in at $743.4 million. That's significantly higher than the $410.2 million generated in 2020. Operating cash flow rose more modestly, climbing from $919.6 million to $1.19 billion, while EBITDA expanded from $1.08 billion to $1.47 billion. For the first half of the year, bottom line growth continued to be strong. Net income jumped from $282.6 million to $427.8 million. Operating cash flow expanded from $459.5 million to $720 million. And EBITDA for the company grew from $596.5 million to $889.8 million. This rise in profitability has made management bullish when it comes to share buybacks. In April of this year, the company announced a new $350 million share buyback program. At the same time, they retired their previous $250 million plan, $207.2 million of which had already been spent. This year alone, the company has been particularly active in buying back stock, with 2.8 million shares, or $149.9 million, repurchased by the firm. More likely than not, the company will continue to buy back stock throughout the rest of this year. That's because they have high expectations regarding the 2022 fiscal year as a whole. Earnings per share are now forecasted to be between $5.30 and $5.45. That compares to the prior expected range of $5.20 to $5.40. At the midpoint, this should translate to net income of $877 million. That's 18% higher than what the company achieved last year. No guidance was given when it came to other profitability metrics. But if we assume that they will increase at the same rate that earnings should, we should anticipate operating cash flow of $1.40 billion and EBITDA of $1.74 billion. Author - SEC EDGAR Data If these numbers come to fruition, then shares of the company look quite cheap. The firm would be trading at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 10. The price to operating cash flow multiple is 6.2, while the EV to EBITDA multiple should come out to 5.9. Of course, investors would be wise to assume that current strong market conditions will not continue indefinitely. Between fears of a recession, higher inflation, and higher interest rates, not to mention the very real likelihood that supply chain constraints will eventually ease through overinvestment if nothing else impacts the supply situation first, these strong market conditions could eventually come to cease. The good news for investors, however, is that shares are attractive even if this comes to pass. If we were to use the firm's 2021 results, for instance, its multiples should be 11.8, 7.4, and 6.9, respectively. Even if we go back to the 2020 fiscal year, shares do not look all that bad, with a price to operating cash flow multiple of 9.5 and an EV to EBITDA multiple of 9.2. The only way in which shares might be a bit lofty in this case is from the price-to-earnings perspective, with the company trading at a multiple of 21.4.

Aug 29
Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (NYSE:KNX)

Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (NYSE:KNX)

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. ( NYSE:KNX...

Shareholder Returns

KNXUS TransportationUS Market
7D-0.2%-5.9%-5.2%
1Y-8.0%-27.8%-23.0%

Return vs Industry: KNX exceeded the US Transportation industry which returned -27.8% over the past year.

Return vs Market: KNX exceeded the US Market which returned -23.1% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is KNX's price volatile compared to industry and market?
KNX volatility
KNX Average Weekly Movement4.0%
Transportation Industry Average Movement6.8%
Market Average Movement6.9%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market15.8%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market2.8%

Stable Share Price: KNX is less volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.

Volatility Over Time: KNX's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
198927,650Dave Jacksonhttps://knight-swift.com

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides truckload transportation services in the United States, Mexico, and Canada. The company operates through four segments: Trucking, Logistics, Less-than-truckload (LTL), and Intermodal. Its trucking services include irregular route, dedicated, refrigerated, flatbed, expedited, dry van, drayage, and cross-border transportation of various products, goods, and materials.

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Fundamentals Summary

How do Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
KNX fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$7.70b
Earnings (TTM)US$888.62m
Revenue (TTM)US$7.25b

8.7x

P/E Ratio

1.1x

P/S Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
KNX income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$7.25b
Cost of RevenueUS$4.84b
Gross ProfitUS$2.41b
Other ExpensesUS$1.52b
EarningsUS$888.62m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)5.53
Gross Margin33.19%
Net Profit Margin12.26%
Debt/Equity Ratio24.4%

How did KNX perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

1.0%

Current Dividend Yield

8%

Payout Ratio
We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is KNX undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for KNX?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

KNX key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA5.5x
PEG Ratio-2.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does KNX's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

KNX PE Ratio vs Peers
The above table shows the PE ratio for KNX vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average9.3x
CAR Avis Budget Group
2.8x-50.0%US$6.6b
UHAL AMERCO
8.8xn/aUS$9.8b
SAIA Saia
14.1x4.0%US$4.8b
LSTR Landstar System
11.6x-21.3%US$5.2b
KNX Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings
8.7x-3.0%US$7.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: KNX is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.7x) compared to the peer average (9.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does KNX's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Transportation Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: KNX is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.7x) compared to the US Transportation industry average (8.7x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is KNX's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

KNX PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.7x
Fair PE Ratio11.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: KNX is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.5x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of KNX when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: KNX ($47.91) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($66.12)

Significantly Below Fair Value: KNX is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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Future Growth

How is Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 19 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

  • Earnings vs Savings Rate

  • Earnings vs Market

  • High Growth Earnings

  • Revenue vs Market

  • High Growth Revenue

  • Future ROE


-3.0%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: KNX's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-3% per year).

Earnings vs Market: KNX's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-3% per year).

High Growth Earnings: KNX's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: KNX's revenue (0.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: KNX's revenue (0.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: KNX's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (10.2%).


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Past Performance

How has Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

  • Quality Earnings

  • Growing Profit Margin

  • Earnings Trend

  • Accelerating Growth

  • Earnings vs Industry

  • High ROE


16.9%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: KNX has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: KNX's current net profit margins (12.3%) are higher than last year (10.9%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: KNX's earnings have grown by 16.9% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: KNX's earnings growth over the past year (62.5%) exceeds its 5-year average (16.9% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: KNX earnings growth over the past year (62.5%) underperformed the Transportation industry 62.5%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: KNX's Return on Equity (13.4%) is considered low.


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Financial Health

How is Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

  • Short Term Liabilities

  • Long Term Liabilities

  • Debt Level

  • Reducing Debt

  • Debt Coverage

  • Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: KNX's short term assets ($1.5B) exceed its short term liabilities ($1.1B).

Long Term Liabilities: KNX's short term assets ($1.5B) do not cover its long term liabilities ($3.0B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: KNX's net debt to equity ratio (21.4%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: KNX's debt to equity ratio has increased from 1.2% to 24.4% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: KNX's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (89.6%).

Interest Coverage: KNX's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (38.2x coverage).


Balance Sheet


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Dividend

What is Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

  • Notable Dividend

  • High Dividend

  • Stable Dividend

  • Growing Dividend

  • Earnings Coverage

  • Cash Flow Coverage


1.00%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: KNX's dividend (1%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.65%).

High Dividend: KNX's dividend (1%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.57%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: KNX's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: KNX's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.


Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its low payout ratio (8.2%), KNX's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by earnings.


Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its low cash payout ratio (8.9%), KNX's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by cash flows.


Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

5.0yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Dave Jackson (46 yo)

11.58yrs

Tenure

US$6,281,272

Compensation

Mr. David A. Jackson, also known as Dave, serves as Member of Advisory Board at Embark Technology, Inc. (formerly known as Embark Trucks, Inc.) since September 2021. He was President and Chief Executive Of...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Dave's total compensation ($USD6.28M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD8.51M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Dave's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: KNX's management team is seasoned and experienced (5 years average tenure).


Board Members

Experienced Board: KNX's board of directors are considered experienced (7.1 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: KNX insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

NYSE:KNX Recent Insider Transactions by Companies or Individuals
DateValueNameEntityRoleSharesMax Price
08 Aug 22SellUS$265,749Michael LiuIndividual4,827US$55.05
29 Jul 22SellUS$132,432James UpdikeIndividual2,400US$55.18
25 Feb 22SellUS$108,741Michael GarnreiterIndividual2,000US$54.37
09 Feb 22SellUS$115,578Dustin OhlmanIndividual2,022US$57.16
16 Nov 21SellUS$131,718Timothy HarringtonIndividual2,203US$59.79
03 Nov 21SellUS$98,363Michael LiuIndividual1,663US$59.15

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Top 25 shareholders own 64.93% of the company
OwnershipNameSharesCurrent ValueChange %Portfolio %
10.36%
BlackRock, Inc.
16,638,235$797.1m-0.04%0.02%
9.04%
The Vanguard Group, Inc.
14,525,781$695.9m4.54%0.02%
6.04%
Wellington Management Group LLP
9,707,449$465.1m18.11%0.08%
5.06%
FMR LLC
8,133,406$389.7m-4.22%0.04%
4.53%
AllianceBernstein L.P.
7,281,205$348.8m3.45%0.14%
3.68%
State Street Global Advisors, Inc.
5,908,543$283.1m-6.43%0.02%
2.89%
Morgan Stanley, Investment Banking and Brokerage Investments
4,647,293$222.7m-6.57%0.04%
2.37%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
3,812,334$182.6m-0.98%0.04%
1.9%
Ensign Peak Advisors Inc.
3,046,983$146.0m-3.56%0.35%
1.86%
Massachusetts Financial Services Company
2,990,714$143.3m-3.89%0.04%
1.67%
Gary Knight
2,682,161$128.5m0.01%no data
1.65%
J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Inc.
2,644,885$126.7m-4.48%0.02%
1.54%
M Six Investors, Llc
2,475,000$118.6m0%no data
1.4%
Geode Capital Management, LLC
2,242,303$107.4m-1.04%0.01%
1.38%
Lyndee Nester
2,216,248$106.2m0%no data
1.3%
Invesco Ltd.
2,083,368$99.8m-17.21%0.03%
1.05%
BNY Mellon Asset Management
1,688,835$80.9m1.84%0.02%
1.03%
Kevin Knight
1,648,640$79.0m-0.39%no data
1.01%
Norges Bank Investment Management
1,629,669$78.1m0%0.01%
1.01%
Deka Investment GmbH
1,622,185$77.7m0.14%0.11%
0.94%
Northern Trust Global Investments
1,509,607$72.3m-4.21%0.01%
0.87%
Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc.
1,390,153$66.6m-1.19%0.02%
0.82%
AQR Capital Management, LLC
1,314,119$63.0m42.21%0.14%
0.79%
Citadel Advisors LLC
1,265,079$60.6m4.82%0.09%
0.75%
Frontier Capital Management Co LLC
1,210,104$58.0m-30.78%0.56%

Company Information

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.
  • Ticker: KNX
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Founded: 1989
  • Industry: Trucking
  • Sector: Transportation
  • Implied Market Cap: US$7.697b
  • Shares outstanding: 160.67m
  • Website: https://knight-swift.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.
  • 2002 West Wahalla Lane
  • Phoenix
  • Arizona
  • 85027
  • United States


Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
KSXDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesClass A Common StockDEEUROct 1994
KNXNYSE (New York Stock Exchange)YesClass A Common StockUSUSDOct 1994

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/09/24 00:00
End of Day Share Price2022/09/23 00:00
Earnings2022/06/30
Annual Earnings2021/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.